After rising around 80% in the first two quarters of 2023, bitcoin (btc) fell approximately 11% in the third quarter ending in September. However, there is a silver lining for the bulls because they achieved a positive monthly close in September, the first since 2016.
Buyers will try to take advantage of this momentum in October, which has a bullish history. According to data from CoinGlass, only 2014 and 2018 have produced negative monthly returns since 2013 in October. There is no guarantee that history will repeat itself, but the data can be used as a good starting point for traders to formulate strategies.
bitcoin‘s recent strength has also fueled interest in altcoins. Some altcoins are trying to break above their respective upper resistance levels, signaling the beginning of a strong recovery. The bullish momentum could accelerate further if bitcoin extends its relief rally to $28,000.
Not all altcoins are expected to take off higher. The cryptocurrencies that are showing strength are the ones that can lead the recovery upwards. Let’s study the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could perform better in the short term.
bitcoin price analysis
bitcoin has been trading above the moving averages since September 28, which is a positive sign. This shows that the advantage is gradually shifting in favor of the buyers.
The bears are trying to stop the rally near $27,500, but the bulls have not given up much ground. This shows that every small dip is being bought. This increases the chances of a breakout above $27,500. The btc/USDT pair could retest the crucial overhead resistance of $28,143. This level may again attract aggressive selling by the bears.
If the price drops sharply from $28,143, the pair could retest the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,630). A strong rebound from this level could push the price above $28,143. Afterwards, the pair could rise to $30,000.
This bullish view will be nullified in the short term if the price declines and falls below the solid support of $26,000.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has support at the 20-day EMA. This indicates that the bulls are trying to take over. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily and will try to stop the recovery in the area between $27,300 and $27,500. Sellers will then have to push the price below the 20 EMA to take control.
On the contrary, if the bulls pierce the overhead resistance at $27,500, it will pave the way for a possible rally to $28,143. This level can witness a tough battle between buyers and sellers.
Manufacturer price analysis.
Maker (MKR) broke and closed above $1,370 on September 26, signaling the start of a new uptrend. When an asset is trending up, traders tend to buy the dips.
The bears tried to stop the bullish move at $1,600, but the bulls bought the dip at $1,432. This indicates that sentiment remains positive and lower levels are being bought. If the bulls push the price above $1,600, the MKR/USDT pair could rise to $1,760 and then run to $1,909.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops sharply and slides below $1,432, it could leave room for a retest of the breakout level at $1,370. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to signal that the uptrend may be over.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are fiercely protecting the overhead resistance at $1,600. If the bulls want to keep their chances of continuing the uptrend alive, they will have to buy the dips to the 20-EMA.
If the price retraces from the 20 EMA, buyers will once again try to overcome the $1,600 hurdle and begin the next leg of the uptrend. Alternatively, a breakdown may begin to $1,432 and then to the 50 SMA if the pair falls below the 20-day EMA.
Aave Price Analysis
Aave (AAVE) is attempting to break above the long-term downtrend line, indicating a possible trend reversal. The bounce off the 20-day EMA ($62.42) on September 28 indicates a shift in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
The bears will try to stop the recovery at the downtrend line, but if the bulls do not allow the price to fall below the 20-day EMA again, the probability of a break above it will increase. Thereafter, the AAVE/USDT pair could start an upward move towards $88.
The 20-day EMA is the important support to watch on the downside. If this level is broken, it will suggest that the bears remain active at higher levels. That could push the price down to the 50-day SMA ($58.82).
Both the ascending 20-EMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate that the bulls are in control. The rally may face selling at the downtrend line, but the bulls will try to stop the decline at the 20-EMA.
A strong rebound from the 20-day EMA will open the doors for a possible rise above the downtrend line. The pair may rise first to $75 and then to $80. The bears will have to sink and hold the price below the 20 EMA to break the pace.
Related: Cryptosynthetic assets, explained
THORChain Price Analysis
THORChain (RUNE) has reached the $2 overhead resistance for the third time in recent days. Repeated repetition of a resistance level tends to weaken it.
If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, prospects for a rally above $2 will improve. If that happens, the RUNE/USDT pair could rise first to $2.28 and then to $2.78.
This positive view will be invalidated in the short term if the price declines and falls below the moving averages. Such a move will suggest that the bulls have given up and the pair could fall to $1.37.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are selling near the overhead resistance at $2, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to skid and hold below the 20-day EMA. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.
If the bulls push and sustain the price above $2, it will signal the beginning of a new uptrend. The pair could then rise towards $2.35. On the contrary, if the price turns lower and falls below the 20 EMA, it will indicate the beginning of a deeper correction towards the 50 SMA.
Injective price analysis
Injective (INJ) has been trading within a wide range between $5.40 and $10 for the past few days. Price action within a range can be random and volatile, but when the boundaries are far apart, trading opportunities can arise.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. The INJ/USDT pair could first rise to $8.28, where the bears may mount strong resistance. If the bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could gain momentum and shoot towards $10.
If the bears want to avoid the upside, they will have to defend the overhead resistance and quickly drag the price below the moving averages. The pair could then retest the immediate support of $6.36.
Both moving averages are sloping upward on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is in overbought territory, suggesting that the bulls have a slight advantage. The rally could reach $8.28, which will likely act as a strong hurdle.
On the downside, the first support is at the 20-EMA. A bounce from this level will indicate that the uptrend remains intact. On the contrary, a break below the 20-day EMA will indicate that the bulls are taking profits. That can push the price down to the 50-SMA.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
