The latest research from Standard Chartered grades offer a very bullish outlook for leading digital assets, bitcoin (btc) and ethereum (eth), to the end of 2024 and beyond. Analysts at the bank project that bitcoin could reach $150,000, while ethereum could hit the $8,000 mark.
These projections come against a backdrop of significant developments in the crypto space, including the launch of bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and ethereum's recent Dencun upgrade.
bitcoin's path to $150,000
The bank's research delves into the factors driving bitcoin's potential rise to $150,000 by the end of the year. Central to this projection is the influence of bitcoin spot ETFs, which, since their launch on January 11, have seen rapid inflows outpacing increases in open interest.
According to the bank, this suggests a stronger and more sustainable positioning for bitcoin, distinct from previous speculative peaks. “Rapid inflows into new bitcoin (btc) spot ETFs have dominated (…) Most inflows are likely to be rigid pension-type flows,” clarify Geoff Kendrick and Suki Cooper, highlighting the new stability in bitcoin investment trends.
Three fundamental analyzes form the cornerstone of Standard Chartered's bitcoin valuation:
- Gold analogy: Drawing parallels with the gold market's response to the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank estimates that bitcoin could rise to the $200,000 level, which is a 4.3x increase from its price before the ETF.
- Optimization of two assets: By optimizing a portfolio with 80% gold and 20% bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a bitcoin level of around $190,000.
- ETF Inflows Correlation: Linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and bitcoin price points to a possible $250,000 level, assuming total ETF inflows are around the bank's midpoint estimate of $75 billion. .
Standard Chartered notes that these three measures suggest “that $200,000 is the 'correct' price level for btc by the end of 2025, (…) and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time.” moment”.
Additionally, the research notes that “it is likely to surpass $250,000 at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers purchase btc.” Previously, the bank only predicted a bitcoin price of $100,000 by the end of 2024.
ethereum's path to $8,000
ethereum's expected rise to $8,000 by the end of 2024 is anchored by two transformative developments: the Dencun upgrade and the expected approval of eth spot ETFs. The recent Dencun upgrade, by significantly reducing transaction costs on Layer 2 blockchains, enhances ethereum's competitive advantage.
“ethereum (eth) has just undergone the 'Dencun' upgrade, which drastically reduces the cost of transactions (…) making eth more competitive,” the research notes.
The forecast also depends on the anticipation of US SEC approval for eth ETFs before May 23, a decision that will catalyze substantial inflows into ethereum. From the experience of bitcoin ETFs, Standard Chartered expects similar enthusiasm for ethereum, with projected inflows of 2.39 to 9.15 million eth (equivalent to approximately $15 to $45 billion).
This major capital injection is seen as a crucial lever for ethereum's price rise. “We expect significant ETF inflows to eth (…) This could take eth to the $8,000 level by the end of 2024,” explains the bank, underlining the parallel potential for growth similar to bitcoin's trajectory.
The forecast for 2025 and beyond
Looking ahead, Standard Chartered is venturing into the realm of predictions for 2025, where the bank sees the eth to btc price ratio rising back to the 7% level, a hallmark of the 2021-22 period.
This adjustment foresees an ethereum price of $14,000 by the end of 2025, given bitcoin's projected level of $200,000. This scenario underlines the bank's optimism about the enduring value proposition and growth potential of these leading digital assets in the medium term.
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $68,401.
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