Ten years ago, after announcing the iPhone 6, Tim Cook had something else to show the world: the first promotional video for the Apple Watch.
It's funny watching that video Nowadays, especially when we focus on the features that Apple claimed would revolutionize the smartwatch category. There was the Digital Crown, a supposed breakthrough in input technology that allowed you to scroll and zoom on what was essentially a mini-computer on your wrist. It had a Taptic Engine that vibrated discreetly when a text or notification came through. Glances were supposed to be digestible bits of information, a sort of status update for your apps. Also, remember Digital Touch? That weird feature where you’d press two fingers on the screen and it would send a friend an animation of your heartbeat?
Let's not forget the $10,000 18-karat gold Apple Watch Edition.
A decade later, Apple Watch launch videos are completely different. They’re now filled with people sharing stories about how the Apple Watch saved their lives. Year after year, most of the new features focus on novel ways to close the rings. Whatever you think of the Apple Watch, it’s now the most popular smartwatch in the world and has been for years. In 2020, it outsold the entire Swiss watch industry. It’s an undeniable success. But, 10 years later, where is the Apple Watch headed?
The first Apple Watch arrived during the golden age of fitness trackers. Fitbits and devices like the Jawbone Up reigned supreme with their long battery life and simplicity. Smartwatches were kind of lame. Pebble was beloved for its simplicity among gadget geeks, but the company never managed to catch on with the mainstream public. Google was next on the scene with Android Wear in 2014, but as a platform, it was plagued by slow interfaces, questionable tracking accuracy, bulky form factors, and paltry battery life. Samsung had some options in its Tizen operating system, but it struggled with many of the same issues. The same thing happened to the first Apple Watch. For most people, the smartwatch was an overly expensive device that couldn’t replace a fitness tracker or their smartphone. So what was the point of buying one?
Nobody had a good answer, not even Apple (which is probably why much of the Apple Watch's initial marketing focused on fashion, among other things). And it didn't start to find the answer until 2017.
That’s when Apple added LTE with the Series 3. Suddenly, the Apple Watch wasn’t connected to your phone. You could still call for help in an emergency. I remember calling my roommate to give myself the illusion of safety while freaking out on a walk. Safety was a persuasive argument, albeit one tempered by still-slow performance. It certainly didn’t help that making that call completely drained my battery life in just 30 minutes. After I finished testing the Series 3, I went back to my Fitbit Alta HR, but my perception of the device as an unnecessary luxury had changed.
And then, in 2018, came the real industry-wide turning point with the Series 4. Now, the Apple Watch had FDA-cleared EKGs that could detect atrial fibrillation. It could determine when you’d taken a hard fall and call for help on your behalf. Plus, you could get alerts if your heart rate went up abnormally when it shouldn’t. Your phone can’t do that. Suddenly, the Apple Watch was no longer a fancy toy that, at best, helped sort through notifications. It could save lives. And it did.
It turns out that health is what drives the average person to buy a smartwatch. Anecdotally, it's the number one reason my friends and family ask me about smartwatches. I get texts from people worried about their parents' health, or, as we get older, from worried friends after a doctor's visit that didn't go so well. That's why I personally made the switch, too. That's why it's so hard to find anyone making fitness trackers these days.
The only problem is that technology advances quickly, while health is notoriously slow.
The Apple Watch has received more smart updates than I can count. So many that the Series 9, Ultra 2, and second-generation SE are all very different devices than the original watch. (I, for one, am a big fan of last year’s double-tap gesture.) But even the most ardent Apple Watch fans can’t deny that the updates feel more iterative with each passing year. Aside from the introduction of the Ultra in 2022, there hasn’t been an industry-shaking update since the Series 4.
Not for lack of trying. There have been several rumors that Apple has been working on features like high blood pressure and sleep apnea detectionBesides being the holy grail of all healthcare technology, noninvasive blood glucose monitoring, the raison d'être that catapulted the smartwatch into existence (the fact that it can save lives) is also what has kept it in limbo. If people believe this technology can save lives, it has to clear a higher regulatory bar than any other consumer device.
Even the most passionate Apple Watch fans can't deny that the updates feel more iterative with each passing year.
This is a good thing! FDA clearance is there to protect consumers and ensure that regulations are followed. But this means that Apple is somewhat stuck. For better or worse, it has created very high expectations for consumers in this area. However, advanced health features require companies to walk a fine line between regulatory clearance, accuracy, and patents. All of this requires an incredible amount of resources and time. (You need look no further than Apple’s legal battle with medical device maker Masimo over blood oxygen technology to understand why Samsung beat Apple to the punch in securing an FDA-cleared sleep apnea feature.)
At its core, the Apple Watch is kind of like the iPhone from a few years ago: solid, but with minor updates and a vague sense that something big might be around the corner. But while generative ai has breathed new life into smartphones, no one has yet figured out how best to introduce it to a smartwatch. Based on what we saw at WWDC, Apple Intelligence isn’t coming to the Watch anytime soon, either. So where does that leave the Apple Watch over the next decade?
There's always the possibility that Apple will pull an industry-first health feature out of nowhere. Just a few days ago, Bloomberg and 9a5Mac Both reported that the long-delayed sleep apnea feature might be coming. But without health, Apple has to go the more traditional route: bigger screens, better battery life, improved sensors, more detailed fitness features to compete with Garmin, Polar, and Suunto, more ways to integrate with other Apple devices, new non-health-related ways to improve your life. Apple is in a tough spot, but in the case of ECG, it was worth the wait. The next time Tim Cook takes the stage, it might not be to show off life-saving tech, but give him time.
