youl The United States is out of the blocks. The European Union is rushing down the road. China is also competing. Here in dear old blighty, we’re not even at the starting line. While others are hurtling towards the horizon, the UK has yet to tie its shoelaces.
The government seems hardly to have noticed that there is a global race to master the green technologies of the future. In investment attracted, jobs created, income earned and lives improved, the prizes for the winners will be enormous. In lost prosperity, the punishment for the laggards will be severe.
In the US, the Joe Biden administration has embarked on a $2 trillion program to transform the American economy. Much of that money is earmarked to incentivize investment in technologies ranging from battery production to green hydrogen. It is driven by five goals: decarbonize the economy, create good-paying jobs, gain American advantage in future markets, foster supply chains that are less reliant on authoritarian states, and establish energy security. Eager for the Biden plan to attract vital industries and cutting-edge technology from Europe to the US, the EU plans to relax its rules on state aid to allow a wave of tax credits for green investments and speed up the approval of clean energy projects. . . china is spend large sums in pursuit of its ambitions to be the world leader in areas such as the production of solar panels. While there are worryingly protectionist aspects to this contest, there is also a big upside. Better that the great powers compete with each other to save the planet than to burn it down.
The UK, a mid-size player that has broken away from its closest economic bloc, cannot match the huge incentives and subsidies the giants are throwing into this race. So our best hope of having a share in the industries of the future is to maximize the influence we possess by being agile, creative and determined.
A number of recent studies have come to very similar and alarming conclusions. The UK’s response to this global turn is worse than slow. When light-speed thinking is required, government moves at the pace of an arthritic snail.
All the major global players are investing substantial sums to secure supplies of semiconductors, the brains of everything from electric vehicles to wind turbines. Our government was supposed to reveal a UK blueprint for semiconductor safety last fall. Sign of it there is still none. The select business committee was right when it warned on Friday that the absence of any strategy in this vital area is “an act of national self-harm” which will leave the UK dangerously exposed.
In the aftermath of Russia’s brutal invasion of the Ukraine and the skyrocketing oil and gas prices that followed, Boris Johnson launched what was supposed to be an energy security strategy. That was 10 months ago and was accompanied by the claim that the nuclear component would be accelerated by the immediate establishment of a “flagship body” called Great British Nuclear. This promise has gone the way of many of that bloviator’s empty boasts. Simon Bowen, the industry expert who was appointed to advise on the creation of the GBN, recently told MPs that it does not yet exist, ministers have not set out “a blueprint that tells us what technologies we need and when and where” and has been financed. been agreed. “He missing piece At the moment it is the general strategy”. Pretty important piece missing, don’t you think?
Chris Skidmore, a former science minister, was named a “net zero czar” by Liz Truss. He shouldn’t hold that provenance against him, because he’s a thoughtful man who recently produced a timely report. His polite, technical language didn’t disguise his scathing conclusions. His comprehensive review, running to more than 300 pages and based on more than 50 roundtable discussions across the country, registered one failure after another. Investment in renewable energy has been stifled by U-turns and government prevarications, such as endless bickering among Conservatives over whether they want to encourage more onshore wind or ban it. New homes are still being built with disregard for net zero standards. The old lose heat for lack of an effective insulation program. Skidmore added his voice to those who warn that the clean energy transition is a global race for potentially vast markets that the UK cannot afford to lose.
It does not have to be this way. There is a large reservoir of public support for strong action to green the economy and end our dangerous dependence on planet-destroying fossil fuels. Even as Brits have plenty of other things making them anxious – a collapsed NHS, a cost-of-living crisis, waves of strikes in essential services – the climate crisis still ranks in the top four. voter concerns. Britain has the talent to excel in some of the technologies that will be essential in the 21st century. The UK has been a pioneer in developing carbon capture and offshore wind, which accounted for about a quarter of our electricity generation in 2022. But there are growing fears that the UK is squandering its advantages and not exploiting its opportunities. The consequences could be devastating for the economy. The British car industry, which generates many jobs, is very anxious that it be a victim of the end of the combustion engine without a supply of domestically produced batteries to put in electric vehicles. Gigafactories are essential for the volume manufacturing of electric vehicles. Despite all the rhetoric about being at the forefront of the ‘green industrial revolution’, the UK has only a battery factory compared to an estimate of 100 in China. Hopes of setting up a second collapsed when Britishvolt, a company near Blyth, Northumberland, collapsed in insolvency last month.
Part of the blame lies with Brexit, which has made the UK a less attractive destination for investment. The incessant instability since the referendum is also to blame. We need a long-term plan to invest in the R&D, skills and infrastructure necessary for a green economy, but that is not going to happen when there is a succession of short-term prime ministers too consumed by scandals and fighting for their survival to think about the future. It is impossible for the government to give companies confidence when Number 10 is a revolving door of chaos. Being a serious competitor in this race will require industrial strategy, a concept to which many conservatives are ideologically allergic. Rishi Sunak has not said anything of substance about the green transition since he became prime minister.
It is a great disadvantage that the Conservative Party is so divided within itself over net zero. Some Tories understand the imperative. Others scoff at what David Cameron once derided as “green trash.” I still run into some who think the climate crisis is a hoax concocted by a conspiracy involving Extinction Rebellion, Sir David Attenborough, and Beijing. Many conservatives may think of net zero only as a painful burden to complain about, and never as a fabulous opportunity to eagerly seize.
The way the polls are looking, the big challenge of moving to a net zero emissions world is more likely to fall to a government headed by Sir Keir Starmer. Labor is talking about a much more positive game with its green prosperity plan. Features include a promise of carbon-free electricity by 2030 and a program to retrofit the insulation of 19 million homes. Some in Labor ranks worry it is a bit too bold, arguing that the Tories will attack price affordability and assuming that greenery lacks voter appeal on “red wall” seats. Ed Miliband, the shadow climate secretary and a green growth evangelist, has spoken with members of Biden’s team about how they conceived and promoted the US government’s transition program. Labor has borrowed heavily from the form when the US president sold them to his voters. He says a senior Labor figure: “It works when you turn it into a problem of (energy) bills, a labor problem, a security problem and a climate problem.” The green prosperity plan is the boldest and most forward-looking element in Sir Keir’s otherwise rather cautious prospectus. The Labor leader has now made it so central to his proposal to revitalize Britain that he couldn’t back down even if he wanted to.
What is good. The only future economy is a green economy. The next few decades will witness one of the greatest industrial transformations in human history. The UK needs to be in the races, not fiddle with their laces while others speed down the track leaving dust on us.
Andrew Rawnsley is the Observer’s chief political commentator.
