Remote learning hurt high school graduation rates; getting rid of exit exams helped

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Until now, the story of how COVID affected those who earned their high school diploma went something like this: Graduation rates dipped a bit for the class of 2021, but rebounded the following year. The pandemic contributed to a small but notable change of a decade of upward progress.

But a new report paints a more complicated picture. Where a student lived and the policies their school followed during the pandemic affected the likelihood they graduated from high school.

When states that normally required a high school exit exam waived that requirement, graduation rates increased. When students spent more of their time learning remotely or in a hybrid setting, graduation rates fell. And the longer a district kept school buildings closed in 2021 and 2022, the less likely its students were to graduate on time.

These are some of the conclusions of a report published by a team of researchers from The GRAD Partnershipan initiative led by nine educational organizations, including the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University and the nonprofit American Institutes for Research.

The report also warns that the full effects of the pandemic on high school graduation may not have been felt yet, as children who struggled in middle and elementary school are still working toward a diploma. High absenteeism rates that have persisted With the pandemic representing another “wild card” that could affect future high school graduation rates, the researchers write.

“During the class of '28, I think we will continue to see these impacts on children who were in fifth through eighth grade during the pandemic,” said Bob Balfanz, a Johns Hopkins education professor and author of the new report. Members of the Class of 2028 were in fourth grade in March 2020 and are currently freshmen in high school.

Balfanz worries about this year’s senior class, which spent much of high school learning remotely and then “crashed” in a national key math test in 8th grade.

Taken together, Balfanz said, this points to the need for high schools to step up progress tracking in the coming years, both for academic courses and work-based learning.

Balfanz said schools need to ask themselves, “Who has a path and who doesn't?”

More time in remote learning reduced graduation rates

Trends in graduation rates varied widely across the U.S. and within the same state.

The nearly 7,000 school districts included in the analysis represent more than half of the country's 13,000 school districts. Of those, about a third ended up with worse graduation rates in 2022 than in 2019, while about a third ended up with better ones. Just over a third of districts didn't see much change.

Balfanz said this is probably a reflection of how the pandemic affected communities in very different ways. Some students lost loved ones or lived in a community where many parents lost their jobs. Some high school students took jobs or took care of their siblings, while others did not.

Other factors may have raised graduation rates, the report notes. Some states and districts waived certain high school graduation requirements, while Some schools adopted more lenient grading policies and were flexible on deadlines..

That means the types of support children need now will also vary greatly by location.

“There will be no radical national solution,” Balfanz said.

Still, there are some steps schools can take according to the report. The data showed that the final months of ninth grade and senior year can be very important for students to stay on track with credits and graduate on time, although those are often times when schools relax advising. Schools could try to offer additional support in the last quarter of the year.

Another suggestion, Balfanz said, is to try some of the strategies that have been effective in increasing graduation rates in the past, such as creating small groups of freshmen who meet regularly with a caring adult for guidance and support, to sometimes known as group of ninth. degree academy. Schools could also consider opening 10th grade academies.

And while the policies that affected high school graduation rates emerged from the emergency response to the pandemic, Balfanz says lessons can still be learned from how they played out.

When districts only taught remotely during the 2020-21 school year, they saw a 0.8 percentage point drop in their graduation rate, compared to districts that taught fully in-person, the researchers found. Districts that used a hybrid model had a high school graduation rate 0.4 percentage points lower than districts that taught fully in-person. Researchers estimate that nearly 12,000 fewer students graduated on time in 2021 due to remote and hybrid instruction — about 3% of all students who did not graduate on time that year.

Balfanz sees this as further evidence that while virtual learning may work for some high school students, it is not a mass solution and should be implemented with caution, especially for struggling students. like those who have been suspended from school.

Previous research found that districts that remained remote during the 2020-21 school year they had lower test scores, especially in elementary and secondary math.

Higher rates of hybrid teaching in 2021 continued to depress high school graduation rates in 2022, but graduation rates actually increased in 2022 among districts that taught fully remotely the previous year.

This finding merits additional investigation, the report states, but it is possible that districts that taught primarily remotely during the 2020-21 school year invested more the following year in supporting students and helping them catch up on missed credits. . It is also possible, the researchers wrote, that students who would later abandon fully remote instruction experienced an increase in engagement when they eventually returned in person.

Exemption from exit exams raised graduation rates

When a dozen states waived high school exit exams during the pandemic, districts' graduation rates were about 0.7 percentage points higher than they would have been otherwise. Researchers estimated that eliminating the exit exam requirement helped 21,000 more students graduate from high school between 2020 and 2022.

The findings come as several states are Reevaluate what should be required of students to earn a high school diploma and several states are getting rid of the exit exam requirement.

New York State, for example, recently announced that Students are no longer required to pass the Regents exam. graduate, beginning with the 2027-28 school year, while Massachusetts voters decided earlier this month that high school students should no longer have to pass a standardized test to obtain a diploma.

Balfanz says the exit exam data is another indicator that high schools need better information about what skills and knowledge will be most useful to students in the future. Some states track student performance after graduation, and those data systems could provide valuable information to change what high schools require of students.

“Let's use them more to see what really matters about the high school experience,” he said, “and let's use that to shape what we ask of kids.”

chalk beat is a nonprofit news site covering educational change in public schools.

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To learn more about COVID's impact on learning, visit eSN's Educational Leadership hub