Post-COVID, high school GPA is not a reliable predictor of first-year college GPA

Key points:

TO new study Examination of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the predictive validity of high school grade point average (HSGPA) and ACT composite scores has uncovered significant changes in how these metrics predict first-year college performance .

The research, conducted by ACT, reveals that while the predictive power of high school GPA has decreased markedly since 2020, ACT composite scores remain a reliable indicator of students' early college success.

Early success in college has been shown to be an indicator of successful and timely degree completion. HSGPA and standardized test scores such as the ACT have been used to predict a student's first-year college GPA (FYGPA), providing information for students to better prepare for higher education and for colleges to identify to students who may need additional support.

ACT researchers reviewed and analyzed students' ACT composite scores, self-reported HSGPAs, and official FYGPAs. The researchers used the HSGPA and ACT composite score to predict a student's FYGPA and then analyzed how these predictions differed from the student's actual FYGPA.

The research found an increase in mean HSGPA from 3.44 in 2017 to 3.59 in 2021. At the same time, ACT Composite scores decreased from 22.51 in 2018 to 21.90 in 2021.

“When examining how these trends correspond with first-year college GPA, our research shows that after the onset of the pandemic, high school GPA has become a less consistent predictor, while ACT composite scores have shown relative stability in predicting first-year GPA. ”said Dr. Edgar I. Sánchez, principal research scientist at ACT and author of the report. “In light of these findings, we must reevaluate the predictive power of high school grades and use a more holistic approach to predicting student success, so that students have an accurate assessment of how they are likely to perform. in his first year of college.

As universities work to ensure they are accurately assessing students as part of the admissions process, and education grapples with the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the study's findings provide important considerations for how universities can assess better student performance.

“As many colleges increasingly rely on high school GPA for admission, course placement, and scholarship decisions, particularly now that standardized test scores become optional, understanding and addressing the effect of Score inflation is more critical than ever,” said ACT CEO Janet Godwin. “An accurate assessment of academic readiness is essential to effectively support students and ensure they are prepared for the challenges of higher education.”

The study is based on an analytical sample of 40,194 students from 10 post-secondary institutions. Based on these findings, colleges and other decision makers should consider a more holistic approach, in which the combined HSGPA and ACT composite score provides a single value and nuanced prediction of students' FYGPA. According to the study, using the HSGPA and ACT Composite scores together improved FYGPA predictions more effectively than using either measure alone.

Key findings:

• The onset of the pandemic caused significant grade inflation in high schools. This study demonstrates that after the onset of the pandemic, HSGPA has become a less consistent predictor of FYGPA.
• The relationship between ACT Composite score and predicted FYGPA has remained stable across cohorts, indicating that ACT Composite score was and remains a consistent predictor of FYGPA despite the pandemic.
• Using the HSGPA and ACT Composite scores together improved FYGPA predictions more effectively than using either measure alone.
• The average ACT composite score decreased slightly from 22.34 (2017) to 21.90 (2021).
• The average HSGPA increased from 3.44 (2017) to 3.59 (2021).
• The average FYGPA showed a steady increase from 2.81 (2017) to 2.92 (2019), fell to 2.78 (2020), and then recovered to 2.84 (2021).

This press release originally appeared online.

eSchool Media staff covers educational technology in all its aspects, from legislation and litigation to best practices, lessons learned and new products. First published in March 1998 as a monthly print and digital newspaper, eSchool Media provides the news and information needed to help K-20 decision makers successfully use technology and innovation to transform schools and universities. and achieve their educational goals.

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