Governments around the world agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade during crucial United Nations climate talks at a summit in Dubai last year. As the annual climate negotiations begin again this week, there has been some progress on that goal, but not enough.
An assessment of national energy plans says countries are on track to double global renewable energy capacity by 2030. There are many opportunities for growth with the falling cost of wind and solar power, but if policymakers are ready Getting rid of fossil fuels is a more complicated question. .
“Renewable energy markets have moved, but governments' ambitions have not.”
“Renewable energy markets have moved, but governments' ambitions have not,” Katye Altieri, an electricity transition analyst at energy think tank Ember, said in a press release published alongside the new report. report.
More than 130 countries fiance last year to triple global renewable energy capacity. Ember assessed 96 countries and the EU that together account for 95 percent of global electricity demand. It found that only eight countries, all within the European Union, had updated their national renewable energy targets over the past year (before the end of October). Its updated national targets would only increase global renewable energy capacity by just four gigawatts, leaving plenty of room for improvement. Countries' existing plans for 2023 were already sufficient to double global renewable energy capacity. But achieving the goal of tripling capacity would require an additional 3,758GW, according to the report.
The good news is that industry forecasts look brighter than reflected in national policies, and renewables can grow even if policymakers drag their feet on climate action. Solar and wind energy are already more affordable energy sources than fossil fuels in most of the world, with solar deployment on track to see a 29 percent increase in installations this year compared to last, according to Ember estimates. This follows a whopping 87 percent increase in solar installations in 2023.
Those advances put solar power, in particular, on track to meet the goal of tripling its capacity by 2030. But there is still a shortage of wind power and the batteries needed to store renewable energy when the sun and winds subside. a separate analysis The International Energy Agency earlier this year said power grids around the world will need a nearly 15-fold increase in energy storage by 2030, mostly in the form of batteries.
Delegates from nearly 200 countries are Convened at the UN summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.this month to try to set new goals to combat climate change. This year the focus is on getting more funding from rich nations to help less wealthy countries transition to cleaner energy and adapt to worsening climate disasters.
But the United States, the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, has cast a shadow over international negotiations. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to pull the United States out of the Paris climate accord and routinely spreads misinformation about renewable energy, including unfounded claims about marine turbines killing whales.
Trump has also said he would rescind unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes $369 billion in federal climate and clean energy funding and has unleashed more than $200 billion in energy investments. clean in the United States.
A “Trump-inspired”withdrawal” on renewable energy could be a boon for competitors, including China, that already dominate clean energy markets. Repealing the Inflation Reduction Act would deal a blow to U.S. manufacturing and commerce, likely ceding $80 billion in investment opportunities to other countries, according to a recent study. analysis by the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University.
Under the international climate change treaty negotiated in Paris in 2015, each country must present an updated national climate plan in February. It is an opportunity to bring the world closer to tripling renewable energy, says Ember. Those national plans are expected to begin to get underway with ongoing talks in Baku.
After all, one underlying question gnaws at every round of climate negotiations: What impact can these splashy summits have unless delegates can turn promises into actions at home?
