Alright, I admit I cheated a little. But arguably not much more than the political pundits who claim to have predicted every election since, say, 1980.
Every election cycle, you see stories on the news of someone who has correctly predicted every election in any number of years. More recently, I saw stories about Alan Lichtmanwho correctly predicted most of the 11 elections from 1984 to 2020. His system for predicting elections is called “13 Keys” and consists of 13 true/false questions to predict the winner of the elections.(1)
But then Allan Lichtman got it wrong in the 2024 election. Does this cast doubt on election experts who claim to have sophisticated election prediction systems?
In this article, I will show you how you too can predict each…
