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Of the so-called Magnificent Seven leaders in artificial intelligence (ai) in the US, the tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock price is the only one that hasn't really increased in the last two years.
It has gained only 8% and is still well below its 2021 peak. At the other end of the scale, NVIDIA has increased 1,000% in two years.
Where next?
Where Could Tesla Stock Go Next? I'm writing this on the day of the big robotaxi event.
Some industry observers believe this could mark a new turn for the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer. Others don't think it will make much of a difference to bottom line cash flow. At least not yet.
No matter how good a Tesla taxi is, it would take time to obtain the necessary approvals and then ramp up production.
And that's while demand for ai chips outstrips supply, which looks like a bottleneck.
Will the increase continue to increase?
It also comes at a time when some analysts are questioning the strength of the rise of ai. How much more money can large companies invest before they can make enough profit to justify the cost?
I wonder how much FOMO (fear of missing out) might be helping to drive everyone into top gear.
Other companies are also joining the initiative. general motors is set to begin its next phase of driverless taxi testing in California, after an accident halted it a year ago.
Industry experts
One thing seems clear to me. We will not go from the taxi rank of today to the streets full of them tomorrow.
And where there is uncertainty in the industry itself, there is a lot of uncertainty among investment experts.
According to MarketWatch, analysts place an average price target of $227 for Tesla at the moment. Wait… the current price is higher than that, $241!
Individual targets range from a healthier $400 to a surprisingly low $38. Yes, there is one analyst who thinks Tesla's share price needs to gain 66% to reach fair value, and there is one who sees an 84% drop down the road.
Oh, and I've left out Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest. In June, he set a $2,600 price target for Tesla by 2029. I think it's fair to say that the investment community is divided on his judgment.
my opinion
I should make it clear that I would never make an investment decision based on an analyst's price target. Or according to any forecast, at least not on their own.
But over the years, I've found that it definitely helps to hear all opinions before making a decision. And that's especially true when it comes to something complicated like this.
And judging from what I see here, the experts are so distant that they seem to have no more idea than I do.
I guess I'll wait, see where the robotaxi thing goes, and keep my mind focused on trying to come up with a rational long-term assessment.
