NEWSLETTER
It has been another week for the automotive industry and the analysts that cover it. The fourth quarter of Rivian and the profits of the whole year obtained mixed reactions from the analysts. A Tesla executive shared a critical update on a long -standing project in a podcast, and Bank of America analysts see confidence in houses and babies, but not in cars.
Rivian's positive fourth attracts the analyst's skepticism
On Thursday, February 20, the manufacturer of electric vehicles based in California Rivian (RNVN) He published his earnings results from the fourth quarter and end of the year 2024.
In the last quarter of 2024, Rivian reported a gross gain of $ 170 million, which proves as promoted by “improvements in variable costs, income per unit Regulatory software and services, in addition to increasing the average sale price of R1T and R1S vehicles with the introduction of its tri-motor configuration.
These movements also helped him publish an improvement year after year of $ 729 million in his adjusted Ebitda. In the fourth quarter, Rivian produced 12,727 vehicles and delivered 14,183 to his customers. In 2024, he made 49,476 of his EV, and customers took home 51,579 of them. Initially, the company went to production numbers of 57,000 units in 2024, which reduced only 47,000 to 49,000 in October due to supply and production problems.
Related: Rivian's growth growth is being frustrated by a large speed increase
But despite some speed blows, including the Trump administration and the closest look of the ELON MUSK Government Department to a loan of $ 6.6 billion for a factory planned in Georgia approved in the last days of the Biden Administration , CEO Rivian RJ Scaringe remained optimistic about the future; particularly the lower price R2 model.
“This quarter, we achieve positive gross profits and eliminate $ 31,000 in the automotive cost of the goods sold per vehicle delivered in the fourth quarter of 2024 in relation to the fourth quarter of 2023,” said Scaringe. “Our focus on profitability throughout the business is essential for the launch of our mass market product, R2. The R2 material bill is approximately 95% origin and is expected to be approximately half of the improved R1 materials.
“I could not be more excited about R2, and I think that the combination of costs and cost efficiencies, together with the surprising level of emotion of customers, will make R2 a truly transformative product for Rivian.”
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However, despite the increase in gross gain, Rivian expects deliveries from lower vehicles in 2025. As a result, Wall Street analysts had mixed reactions, reviewing prices prices up and down for the manufacturer's actions of EV.
In a note published on Friday, February 21, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintained a neutral rating with an objective price of $ 14. He pointed out that, although Rivian improved his cost of the goods sold (COGS) per vehicle to vehicle Approximately $ 100,000 per vehicle in the fourth quarter and saw potential in its software and services, such as its ADAS system, operates in an EV environment that will only become more difficult.
In addition, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andrés Sheppard degraded Rivian Neutral overweight while increasing the objective price to $ 15 of $ 13, citing a lower delivery orientation and other risks, including new rates, the possible possible Elimination of valuable tax credits of EV, interruptions of the supply chain, supply chain interruptions, and reducing the consumer adoption rates.
B&A: growing confidence in household spending, babies, not in cars.
The cars are expensive, the houses are expensive, but babies are a disaster. Like someone who has treated and fixed “disorderly” automotive situations such as broken head joints and has been soaked in all types of viscous liquids such as motor oil and gasoline, nothing made me feel more disgusted than the only time the only time the Baby from a friend had all kinds of accidents while holding them.
However, in their monthly series of consumption surveys, Bank of America analysts saw nominal increases year after year in consumer confidence in various areas.
In its monthly survey of approximately 1,000 people in the United States, Bofa discovered that more people trust to buy a house. In January, 21% of respondents said they had plans to buy a new house, but that number increased to 23% in February. According to Bofa, 23% statistics are an improvement greater than 19% in the same month in 2024, the highest since July 2024 and the second consecutive month of straight increase.
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At the same time, they observed that 12% of their respondents in February this year said they plan to spend money to conceive or adopt a child. It is the highest response since December 2022 and the highest in February in the last four years.
However, they discovered that spending expectations on cars during the next 12 months had marked slightly from its high level. In February 2025, 39.5% of their respondents planned to buy a new car in the next 12 months, marking the third consecutive month of Decline.
Do not buy Tesla actions for cars, says Morgan Stanley.
During Tesla's (Tsla) The profits of the first quarter of 2024 call in April 2024, Musk told analysts and investors that Tesla should be seen as an artificial intelligence or robotics company and that seeing it only as a car company is the incorrect way to see it.
He added that if you do not believe that Tesla will resolve autonomy, you should sell your Tesla actions.
“(…) We should be considered an ai or Robotics Company,” Musk said.
“If you value Tesla as an automotive company, you just have to do it, fundamentally, it is only the incorrect frame, and if you ask the wrong question, then the correct answer is impossible. Therefore, I mean, if someone does not. ' I think Tesla will solve autonomy, I think they should not be investors in the company. “
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In a February 12 note by Adam Jonas by Morgan Stanley, he said that Tesla is in the best position to benefit from the transformation of US manufacturing, since he enhances physical machines. He feels that Musk's firm is the most diversified company that develops physical or smart machines, since the integration of ai will be the catalyst to reduce national manufacturing costs.
“The opportunity is aggravated for 25 years of manufacturing the manufacturing investment of the United States, creating conditions for growth and new and exciting ideas generating alpha,” Jonas said.
“A few years after the not too distant future it will reveal machines that do different things, which are designed, supplied and manufactured differently … that generate business models and industry structures that can have a bit of precious importance with the legacy that we experience today. ”
Tesla still makes electric vehicles, and we are making new, says Tsla VP
However, closer to the ground floor, the Vice President of Vehicle Engineering of Tesla, Lars Moravy, hinted very necessary updates of his most premium products.
The last time that Tesla made significant updates in its Model S and SUV Model XX sedan was in January 2021, when he received subtle changes outside and a totally renewed interior that brought features such as an infotainment screen of the second row's touch screen and A redesigned central console and board with a screen fed by a “game computer”.
However, during an appearance in the Podcast Ride The Lightning launched on February 23, the Vice President of Tesla Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy, hinted that some updates could arrive soon.
“Just give it a minute, we'll get there,” he said.
Lars also discussed another long -standing Tesla project: the second generation sports car.
Announced in November 2017, it was initially established for a 2020 launch, but has been delayed several times. In October 2024, the Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, said the Roadster would be delayed until 2025, but a new update suggests that there may be a long way to go before one arrives through the assembly line.
“What occurred to us exceeded what we originally planned, so Elon said: 'Wow, great! Let's do more!'” He said. “He pushed us a little further.”
The Vice President of Tesla said the development team “designed a lot of custom things” for the illusory Roadster, but hinted that the engineering team behind the car “could work better than we thought.”
He also confirmed that Spacex will collaborate with Tesla in some kind of propulsion technology.
“We are working with Spacex in that now … the cold gas thrusters are super great, and add a certain level of, you know, violate the laws of motor physics,” said Moravy.
Since most of his listeners were skeptical about the real launch of the Roadster, host Ryan McCaffrey asked Moravy to confirm if the project would be launched.
“Could you look into my eyes right now and tell me (the Roadster) is going to leave?” The host asked.
“Yes, I promise to come out,” said the vice president. He told McCaffrey that he had a meeting on the product at the beginning of the same week that the podcast was recorded and understood the frustrations of curious enthusiasts from Tesla. “(Tesla) only had many goals, and you know, (the roadster) is the cherry at the top.”
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