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Wow, I’m writing about a stock market crash on Friday the 13th! Is that a tempting fate or what?
People have been predicting a new stock market crash for much of this year. But the closer we get to December, the less likely it seems that we will have one in 2023.
We cannot rule out the opportunity. But if the bears are right, it looks like any collapse might not occur until 2024.
the last bear
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp, is among the latest to turn pessimistic.
Speaking to CNBC, he said: “The stock market usually drops about 12% just before a recession. That will probably happen at some point and from some level.“
Hmm, a fall, probably, at some point, from some level. It seems he also hedges her bets. Still, I suppose he has a short-term horizon in mind.
Your investment preference? You are tipping bitcoin and gold. That might be what hedge fund people think, but it’s not for me.
The worst since 1927?
US research firm MacroEdge recently said: “Stock risk premium is near its worst historical level since 1927.” They note that similar situations in the past have been followed by large corrections in the market.
So do I fear a stock market crash in 2024?
Not here in the UK. These bearish opinions have to do with the US. S&P 500 index, and that seems a little interesting to me.
The value of S&P 500 stocks compared to debt is reportedly the highest since the dot-com boom.
Cheap UK shares
On the contrary, I don’t think UK stocks are overvalued at all. He FTSE 100 It has gained just 2% so far in 2023, lagging most of the world’s major indices.
This is partly because it has been resilient in recent years and not as volatile. And maybe we Brits are just not as good at buying and selling stocks as our American friends?
Whatever the reason, many UK stocks look cheap to me.
That will be when, in 2024, FTSE 100 ordinary dividends could reach a new all-time high of almost £90bn. That is if the runners’ forecasts are correct.
To do?
So my feeling for 2024 is that we could easily see a US stock market correction. And even if FTSE shares are cheap, I still think they could falter and become even cheaper.
But I’m not going to try to time it.
yes i can buy Barclays stocks with a P/E of only five right now, I think you’d be crazy to pass them up in hopes of a market crash.
The same goes for a recharge of my Aviva Share. I won’t shy away from a 7.8% dividend yield forecast on the possibility that a drop in the share price could push it higher in 2024.
The best in a decade?
I rate 2023 as possibly the best year to start investing in UK shares of the last decade.
But if the market forces and forces the prices of my favorite stocks even lower, 2024 could turn out even better.
