Igor Kutiaev
Inside buyers and sellers have taken a step back since the 2023 stock rally unfolded, according to Citi's equities team.
“Interestingly, both (buying and selling) have had some bearing on future index level performance historically,” strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note. During “the last ten years there was a decent correlation of +0.51 between the number of insiders and future returns of 12 million.”
“In terms of the number of insiders, there is some evidence that they have arrived at a good time, but the correlation is weaker, at -0.17,” Chronert said. “Overall, with more weight on the insider buying measure, there is a mixed signal that generally implies lower but positive future return expectations.”
Going down to the level of individual stocks, the team looked for “those companies with the most insider buying/selling as a percentage of market capitalization over the past 6 months.”
“To be clear, this data reflects only open market purchases/sales,” Chronert said. “Righting or new grants of offset shares are not included as a purchase. However, the sale of acquired shares is included as a sale. This explains the higher market capitalization percentages for sales versus purchases.”
“When trying to assess the relevance of this data, the trend or deviation from the average is probably more important than the absolute number,” he said. “In any case, the data is quite interesting. In particular, it is worth noting that most of the largest internal purchases occur in sectors outside of technology (XLK), which contrasts with many of the main sales.”
Top 20 internal buyers
- VF Corp (VFC) Insider Buys Market Cap Percentage 0.033%
- Carnival Corp (CCL) 0.029%
- Enphase Energy (ENPH) 0.027%
- DENTSPLY SIRONA (X-RAY) 0.013%
- Allegation (ALLE) 0.012%
- Air and Chemical Products (APD) 0.010%
- Northern Trust (NTRS) 0.010%
- Charles River Laboratories (CRL) 0.010%
- AES (AES) 0.009%
- Align technology (ALGN) 0.009%
- Insulated (PODD) 0.009%
- Everest Group (EG) 0.009%
- Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) 0.008%
- Center Point Power (CNP) 0.008%
- Caesar Entertainment (CZR) 0.007%
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 0.006%
- FMC (FMC) 0.006%
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) 0.005%
- Illumina (ILMN) 0.004%
- Qorvo (QRVO) 0.004%
Top 20 Inside Salespeople
- NVR Domestic Sales Market Cap Percentage (NVR) -0.922%
- Airbnb (ABNB) -0.567%
- Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) -0.471%
- Amazon.com (AMZN) -0.467%
- Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) -0.405%
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) -0.347%
- Walmart (WMT) -0.331%
- Textron (TXT) -0.329%
- Teledyne Technologies (TDY) -0.310%
- Tyler Technologies (TYL) -0.291%
- Salesforce (CRM) -0.288%
- Jabil (JBL) -0.278%
- Charter Communications (CHTR) -0.270%
- Complement (SNA) -0.236%
- SBA Communications (SBAC) -0.225%
- Seagate technology (STX) -0.222%
- Lowes (L) -0.222%
- AutoZone (AZO) -0.203%
- Motorola Solutions (MSI) -0.188%
- Research Data Set (FDS) -0.176%
