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US crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday as the US Energy Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively strong growth this year.
In its Latest short-term energy outlook.The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.1 million barrels/day from its previous estimate of an increase of 900,000 barrels/day, while reducing its 2024 estimates for benchmark crude oil prices by ~4%.
The EIA said it expects spot Brent to average $84.15/bbl in 2024, down from its previous forecast of $87.79/bbl, and WTI to average $79.70/bbl, down from its forecast. previous $83.05, but expects Brent to rise to $85/bbl in the second half of the year as OPEC+ extends voluntary production cuts into the third quarter.
“Although crude oil prices initially fell following the OPEC+ announcement, we expect the extension of all voluntary cuts through 3Q24 to cause global oil inventories to continue falling through 1Q25 and put upward pressure on oil prices. during that period,” the EIA said in its report. .
Meanwhile, OPEC+ said in its monthly report which continues to forecast oil demand growth this year at 2.2 million bbl/day and next year at 1.8 million bbl/day, unchanged from last month's outlook, and is expected to non-OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.2 million bbl/day in 2024 and 1.1 million bbl/day. /day in 2025, both equal to those estimated in May.
First month Nymex (CL1:COM) crude oil for July delivery closed +0.2% at $77.90/bbl, and front-month August Brent crude oil (CO1:COM) closed +0.3% at $81.92/barrel.
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Analysts at Morgan Stanley said they expect Brent crude prices to rise. will increase ~$5/bbl this summer but warned that a trend towards a supply adjustment in the next three months will give way to surpluses towards the end of 2024 and early 2025.
Once the third quarter ends, the bank forecasts that seasonal tailwinds will turn into seasonal headwinds, noting that demand for refined products tends to fall by an average of 3.9 million bbl/day in the period. from September to January, creating a difficult environment to recover.
Morgan Stanley's price chart for Brent crude indicates $86 per barrel in the third quarter, falling to $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter before falling to $81 per barrel in early 2025 and $76 by the end of next. anus.
Without further action by OPEC+, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that a “persistent” surplus will occur in 2025.
