Last week he confirmed my point of view on the price of Rolls-Rayce shares!

It has been an incredible 2025 so far to Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR). Last year he saw a massive gain of the price of shares, as he did the previous year, but in 2025, Rolls-Royce increased 35%.

But something has stopped investing in the shares, and recent days they have reminded me why I decided not to buy Rolls-Royce shares from something like its current price.

Civil aviation is a complex business

As the old saying says, a way to become a millionaire is to start as a billionaire and buy an airline.

Civil aviation is a highly complex business. There are a large number of mobile parts and the possible blow effects of even a small event can be significant. However, there is often little or nothing that airlines can do about it.

The travel chaos of several days that results from a fire near Heathrow airport is an example. That is totally out of the owner of British Airways Group of international consolidated airlinesThe control, but will surely harm your business.

Rolls-Royce faces risks that cannot be controlled

That takes me to Rolls-Royce.

One of the things that for a long time worries me about your business model is the centrality of civil aviation. Yes, power and defense are also part of the Rolls business. But civil aviation remains critical and, therefore, if it does wrong, it is difficult for the rolls to work well in general.

That matters because civil aviation is prone to unforeseen sporadic challenges that can close the demand almost immediately.

Heathrow's closure is a small example, but serves as a useful reminder of much broader problems, from volcanic clouds to terrorist attacks and pandemics.

All of them can significantly damage the demand of the passengers, which leads to the airlines to climb the expense on the new engines or the service of the existing ones that are used less than usual.

I like much, but not the price

Why do I care about that as an investor?

After all, Rolls has shown that he can recover from such a challenge. The pandemia put the venerable aeronautical engineer of knees. But the price of Rolls-Royce shares has shot 548% in five years and restored its dividend.

A combination of a solid commercial performance, a close financial discipline and an establishment of aggressive objectives has helped excite investors about the long -term potential for the company.

All of that also seems good to me, and happily I would buy at Rolls-Royce Yeah I could do it in what I see as an attractive price.

But it is quoting in a price / profits relationship of 27. I see that as a spicy for a mature industrial company that operates in a historically cyclical industry that has a long history of great changes in performance.

With the correct security margin, that would be something I could live with. However, as Heathrow's crisis has demonstrated once again, civil aviation is a fragile industry prone to a significant interruption at zero notice that it is out of the control of the airlines.

That presents a risk of demand for Rolls-Royce and the current price of the shares offers me an insufficient safety margin to reflect that risk, in my opinion. So I have no plans to invest.