Between earnings season and the ongoing discussion of recession probabilities, there are many factors contributing to the current market environment.
And, let’s face it, that can cause quite a bit of anxiety.
As Real Money’s Stephen Guilfoyle has pointed out, the macroeconomic data the market has received in the past month has not helped alleviate that anxiety.
But perhaps the initial weekly jobless claims coupled with the fourth-quarter gross domestic product print will be enough to help ease at least some of the anxiety.
Guilfoyle glanced at the printout. in a column for Real money:
“On the surface, this was just what the doctor, or rather the FOMC, ordered. One quarterly GDP data, or really two back-to-back GDP data, which puts 2022 broadly in positive growth territory and seems to set up the scenario for this great white whale the Fed has been hunting: the “soft landing” for the US economy. The Federal Reserve has been aggressive all year in raising short-term interest rates while methodically was drawing on excess liquidity through the monthly reduction of the monetary base Although the main estimate for fourth quarter GDP was 2.9%, personal consumption expenditures, which are an important factor, if not the main factor , of the US economy, recorded growth of 2.1%, the average 2%.
Chris Versace, portfolio manager at Action Alerts PLUS, has been digging into earnings reports to understand how companies are faring in a challenging environment.
Versace explained his thoughts in his morning note to AAP subscribers:
As we digest this (Friday) crop of earnings reports from American Express (AXP), Chevron (CVX) and others, at 8:30am ET, the latest inflation data ahead of the policy meeting is out. Fed policy next week. That will come to us in the form of December’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, a favorite inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, which is included alongside personal income and spending data for December. In particular, we will look at the basic PCE data for December, which is expected to decline to +4.4% yoy from November’s 4.7% reading. If that data points to higher than expected progress in inflation, the market is likely to interpret that as favorable for what the Fed will share next week.
On Monday, January 30, TheStreet will be live with Chris Versace and Stephen Guilfoyle, who contribute to and work on Action Alerts PLUS and RealMoney.
Spaces will begin at noon Eastern, and It can be found here.
Interested in having a question answered? send it here.
