Does the brightness come out of Nvidia's actions?

Not many years ago, people used to queue off stores to have the latest in their hands Apple iPhone These days, the razzmatazz associated with a new launch has become the exclusive domain of Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA). But unlike the new releases of previous chips, the price of the shares did not arise after the last debut of Nvidia. The question now is if you can recover your mojo.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-super-bowl-of-ai“>Super Bowl of ai

Last Tuesday (March 18), at a developer conference full in Silicon Valley, Jensen Huang released a new line of chips. Called the Rubinnamed for the astronomer who discovered dark matter, the ai ​​SUPERCHIP will be up to 14 times more powerful than the Blackwell.

Your strategy is obvious. Despite the threat caused by the launch of Deepseek, it sees much more computational power as the future of ai. In fact, he said that the world will need 100 times more computer power than is expected to only have been.

Echoes of the past

I am a much firmer believer that one can learn a lot about how previous technological advances shapes an industry.

In the 1970s, Mainframe Computing was king, and IBM I was in the center of that universe. With the invention of the PC in the early 80s, the company could not appreciate its threat. Even described them as a “Input system“The expectation was that anyone who bought a PC moved to more powerful Mainframe computers.

Duplicating

Ibms's motto in the past was 'Think!' Think, yes; But not like a lot of clones. Given the threat raised by the appearance of the PC, the company doubled, sinking even more money into the main computing of the frame.

As computers became basic products, the company's margins finally collapsed, and almost declared bankruptcy. Even the great Warren Buffett was invested in IBM and burned. Maybe that explains why it has remained away from the exaggeration that surrounds Nvidia.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-future-of-ai“>Future of ai

I am not trying to make any direct comparison between then and now. What I am warning of the investors they do is stop and think.

Deepseek has changed the narrative around ai, there is no doubt about that. Openai, with much, the most popular and widely used largely used (LLM) model has been effectively marketed. That includes its reasoning model, O1.

Deepseek can fade into the dark. But that doesn't matter. What they have shown is that it does not need the last and best chips, which only Nvidia has, to make a viable llm.

It is not just Nvidia that equips greater power with better. Hyperscalers are too. Last month, the Wall Street Journal He informed that MicrosoftThe total capital expenditure in 2025 would exceed $ 90 billion. Goal He has already committed $ 65 billion this year. These are true sums of money.

For me, it seems that the entire technology industry is trapped in a delusional time. No one knows how the ai ​​industry evolves in the coming years. If these are spectacularly counterproductive, then today's technological giants could suffer the same destination as dinosaurs 65 million 65 million ago. Therefore, until I see a clear path for the ai ​​industry, I will not invest in Nvidia.