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He tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock price has had a pretty rocky ride in 2024 so far. And it's still a bit below its 2021 highs.
But, from the end of August until the market close on the last day of September, Tesla rose a whopping 22%. Can he go even further in October?
Deliveries
Tesla just released its third quarter delivery numbers on October 2nd. And these showed an increase of 6.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. It's the first quarterly increase this year, so it's good, right?
Well, Tesla's share price fell 3.5% that day, having fallen even further before the market closed. At the time of writing, the next day, it appears to be settling at around $249.
The electric vehicle (EV) maker delivered 462,890 vehicles in the three months to September 30. But Wall Street expected more than 463,000.
That's not a big mistake. But nowadays it seems Nadaq stocks are supposed to always beat forecasts. And if they don't, then they're a failure, and that can be enough to lead shareholders to dump a stock.
Chinese demand
Electric vehicle hopes for the near future appear to depend on Chinese demand at the moment. It comes after the Beijing government doubled subsidies for buyers switching to an electric or hybrid vehicle.
But the economic relationship between China and the United States is not exactly nice and light right now. And it could even get harder, depending on who occupies the White House next.
Tesla remains the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer and remains ahead of its major rivals. However, the Chinese BYD is not far behind, delivering 443,426 vehicles in its third quarter.
robotaxi
This sales update isn't the only thing on Tesla's calendar this month. The long-awaited robotaxi event is scheduled for October 10.
Elon Musk thinks it will be a great day and calls it “one for the history books“. He would think so, of course. But it really could be what Tesla needs to regain attention that seems to have drifted elsewhere.
To gauge the likely size of the event, called “We, Robot” on the invitations, the stage is set for the Warner Bros. Discovery studios in Los Angeles.
On the technology front, I think this could be something really amazing.
Be careful
But there could be a long road from a technically successful robotaxi launch to a significant boost to bottom line profits. I wouldn't make a buy or sell decision on a single event like this.
As for valuation, Tesla is quite complicated to figure out. Forecasts place the price-earnings (P/E) ratio at a very high 130 for the current year.
However, if they're right about earnings growth, that number could drop to 60 by 2026. And if that kind of growth continues, it could decline pretty quickly.
Where could Tesla's stock price go in October? I think that could be more due to intuition than something more rational.
