By Michelle Conlin
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Four accounts on the Polymarket cryptocurrency-based prediction market that placed big bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election and have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by non-U.S. citizens or a non-U.S. person. , according to a source familiar with the matter on Friday.
Opinion polls indicate a likely close match between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 vote. However, the odds have diverged on Polymarket, with Trump leading strongly with a 60% chance of winning versus Harris with 40%.
The operation was fueled by four accounts that placed bets worth more than $30 million, according to the source, confirming an earlier story in the Wall Street Journal.
Political pundits and social media users have wondered whether specific high-profile Americans could be behind these measures.
But Polymarket does not allow Americans to place US election bets on the exchange, and the source confirmed that Polymarket users are international. The source said the company certifies all of its large merchants to ensure they do not log in via VPN to hide which country they are in.
Reuters could not immediately determine whether the four accounts represent a single trader or several.
Given the size and impact of the bets, Polymarket is investigating the activity in partnership with outside experts, the person said, confirming the Wall Street Journal report. A $30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket would be equivalent to about 1% of the trading volume on the platform related to the presidential race.
Americans have faced tough restrictions on online betting on US elections. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has previously rejected requests to offer contracts or derivatives that allow Americans to bet on elections.
CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said in a September 2023 statement that such event contracts would effectively turn the agency into an “election policeman,” a duty for which the CFTC lacked a mandate.
“It makes sense that the CFTC would have authority to combat fraud, manipulation and false reporting in the underlying commodity markets,” Behnam said at the time. “But it's not practical for the CFTC to fight them in the underlying market here: a political contest.”
Proponents argued that the contracts could be a valuable new financial tool to provide information about the future.
In November 2023, Kalshi, another sportsbook, sued the CFTC over its ban on election betting in the United States. A federal appeals court ruled in favor of Kalshi on October 2, paving the way for Americans to begin negotiating political races just a month before the election.
Kalshi has Trump at 57% and Harris at 43%.
In an emailed statement, Kalshi said: “Our stance on Trump's rising odds is that it's all part of normal market activity. Trump is simply gaining popularity, and prediction markets aggregate information from an audience broader at a faster pace than surveys.
The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.
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