As the stock markets try to digest the impact of Trump's rates, the Barclays (LSE: BARC) The price of shares has been one of the most affected in the Ftse 100. In the midst of all uncertainty, is this now the purchase opportunity I have been waiting for?
Recession fears
The increasingly fine commercial relations between countries got rid of Trump's tariffs. Its high -risk commitment to bring jobs and manufacturing to the United States could be spectacularly counterproductive if it leads to stagflation and a recession of the United States.
It is not surprising that the banking sector has been one of the most affected. The sector is notoriously cyclical and is a classic indicator of future economic prosperity.
Although the five large banks of the United Kingdom decreased significantly, Barclays has been particularly affected due to its large investment banks operations in the United States. An American recession would result in significantly lower rates from opi, mergers and acquisitions, to begin with.
Structural hedge
The announcement of global tariffs is certainly a low amateur for future bank profits, but one should not forget the importance of structural coverage to cushion the blow.
High interest rates have really helped income from net interests of banks (NII) in recent years. But wherever the economy goes next, that will not affect a large part of Barclays's future profits.
Structural coverage is designed to reduce income volatility and administer the risk of interest rates, especially the fall. Economists already forecast more pronounced tariffs in 2025, as a direct consequence of these rates. But that will not worry.
In its results of the fiscal year24 published in February, the Blue Eagle Bank reported that NII of the coverage increased £ 1.1 billion last year, to £ 4.7 billion. He also declared that he has already blocked £ 9.1 billion of gross income in the next two years. Their income will also continue to build, since it constantly reinvested mature assets with greater returns.
Cost
Another good sign for the bank is that the costs have moved in the right direction. In 2024 it achieved a cost / income ratio of 62%. In total, he delivered £ 1 billion of gross efficiency savings throughout last year. All savings they achieved mean that cash can be implemented elsewhere to create commercial growth.
For the next two years, it is aimed at other £ 1 billion in savings. If it succeeds, that will reduce the cost / income ratio in the 50s of the 50s.
Savings are expected to come from several cubes. Structural commercial actions include simplifying customer trips and people and technology optimization. However, a precautionary note, the recently purchased Tesco Bank integration will increase costs. However, he believes that the efficiency savings in other places will compensate for more than that.
Shareholders' performance
For revenue -centered investors, a fall in the price of shares has led to dividend to 3.6%. At the top, he also announced a shares of shares of £ 1 billion to start immediately. Although the dividend will not increase in absolute terms, the dividend per action will increase as the number of actions in circulation decreases.
In the midst of all uncertainty, I have no idea if the price of the shares has more to fall. But tariffs or not, the foundations are still strong and I intend to buy some more actions in the near future.
(Tagstotranslate) category. Investing