After hitting 2024 highs, will Barclays share price crash?

So far, UK stocks are off to a solid start through 2024. As I write, the FTSE 100 The index is up 5.7% since December 29, 2023, outperforming other major market indices this year. What's more, some stocks have risen sharply, including Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price.

Barclays shares soar

Since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-09, British bank shares have been in a vacuum, lacking long-term bullish momentum. Barclays shares are no exception. However, unlike several large UK lenders, Blue Eagle bank was not bailed out by taxpayers during the global financial crisis.

Furthermore, during the Covid-19 crisis of 2020-21, the Barclays share price saw some sickening price drops. On April 3, 2020, it closed at 80.24 pence, down more than 56% from its early January high.

That said, the Barclays share price has been on a roll in recent months. As I write, it stands at 203.55p, valuing this business at £30.6bn. That's just 1.9% below its 2024 high of 207.5p, reached on Monday 29 April.

Here's how this stock has risen on six time scales:

I can't remember the last time the Barclays share price showed such sustained positive momentum. In 12 months, the shares are up almost a third, while their value has risen almost a quarter in half a decade.

Additionally, it's important to note that the figures above exclude cash dividends, which are quite generous with Footsie stock. In fact, my wife and I have several bank stocks in our family portfolio to earn this income.

For the record, my wife and I own shares in Barclays. We paid 154.5 per share for our stake in July 2022. To date, we have a paper profit of 31.8%, but that's not all. We also received four dividends, totaling 15.25 per share (another 9.9% of our investment), which we reinvested in more shares.

What's next for the share price?

Lacking a crystal ball or magic wand, I am always reluctant to predict future short-term price movements for stocks. To me, this is a fool's game, so I look at the company's fundamentals when weighing stocks.

As for whether Barclays' share price will fall, who knows? What I will say is that I find this stock attractive, but less so than when it was trading at the 52-week low of 128.12p on October 30, 2023.

The stock currently trades at a multiple of 7.9 times earnings, yielding a yield of 12.6%. Therefore, its dividend yield of 3.9% per year is covered by a healthy 3.2 times by trailing earnings. Based on these and other figures, I see no reason to sell our shares.

However, I expect bank profits to take a hit in 2024, driven by slower credit growth, rising bad debts and higher credit losses. The cost of living crisis has hit household budgets hard, leaving bank bosses concerned about declining profits.

In short, I'm not that worried about short-term changes in the Barclays share price. We support Blue Eagle Bank for the long term and will therefore firmly maintain our participation!