As the US election approaches, Evercore ISI analysts are predicting an exceptionally close race, with the outcome likely to be determined by a small number of voters in six or seven states.
The bank said in a note Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate next week, and that the Democratic National Committee's deadline for the virtual roll call is set for Aug. 7.
The remaining candidates under consideration for the vice presidential post include Sen. Mark Kelly (Arizona), Gov. Josh Shapiro (Pa.), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Gov. Tim Walz (Minnesota), and Gov. Andy Beshear (Kentucky).
“These candidates are on the list in the hope that they can help broaden the ticket's appeal, particularly among white voters in the Midwest, voters that President Biden traditionally appealed to,” Evercore ISI wrote.
Evercore notes that Harris' campaign is focused on selecting a no-nonsense running mate, especially after negative media coverage of Republican vice presidential nominee JD (NASDAQ:) Vance.
They say Harris has made significant strides in recent days, raising more than $200 million, recruiting 360,000 new volunteers and energizing young and non-white voters.
Evercore notes that early polls indicate the race is getting closer. However, they believe Harris faces several crucial moments ahead, including her vice presidential election and the Democratic convention, where she will have a big chance to define herself.
Despite the controversies surrounding Vance, Evercore ISI analysts believe President Trump is unlikely to delist him due to the political cost of such a move.
According to the firm, given recent historic events in the race, the final outlook could take a few weeks to be determined.
Ultimately, Evercore ISI concludes that we are likely to see “a very close race decided by a handful of voters in six or perhaps seven states.”
Evercore concluded: “Trump still has a long way to go in the electoral college, but the Democrats have certainly improved their chances in the last two weeks.”
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