October is often considered a crucial month in the cryptocurrency market. It has been a period in which the market has recovered after a difficult September.
For years, the crypto community has coined the term “Until October” to describe these bullish trends, while skeptics sometimes call them “October“if market predictions do not come true.
Given the market volatility in 2024, investors are looking forward to what October will bring. Will it be a month of gains or will disappointment prevail? This research report analyzes investor sentiment, forecasts, and key factors shaping the market direction.
Main findings
- 3 out of 4 cryptocurrency investors are confident that October 2024 will bring significant market gains, which will strengthen the “Until October” narrative.
- ethereum, Solariumand BNB They are expected to be the top altcoins and rise alongside bitcoin.
- More than half of cryptocurrency investors Wait for bitcoin in $80,000 In Uptober
- Almost half of investors We anticipate a bullish fourth quarter, underscoring strong optimism for market growth.
- He United States presidential election It is considered an important catalyst, with 51% of investors expected to influence market movements in the fourth quarter.
- artificial intelligence (ai) It is predicted to dominate crypto narratives, with 52.5% of investors highlighting its importance in the fourth quarter.
Market sentiment in September: Setback or resilience?
Despite September's notorious reputation as a tough month for cryptocurrencies, often labeled as “December“—the mood among investors has remained largely optimistic.
More than half of respondents (55.2%) hold a positive view of the market, driven by several factors. Among them, 27.6% of investors A rebound is expected in October. while 24.2% believe in continued growth in cryptocurrency adoption as more users and institutions become involved in the space.
However, not everyone shares this optimism. A remarkable fact 44.8% of participants He expressed pessimism about September, with concerns focused mainly on the weakening of the world economywhich is the key question for 52.7% of investors.
Interestingly, when it came to portfolio adjustments during this challenging month, most investors chose to hold firm, with 63% prepare for possible Uptober gains.
Meanwhile, a smaller but still notable group of 20.2% bought more crypto assets anticipating market growth, further demonstrating the prevailing belief that October will bring better results.
October 2024 Forecast: 75% of crypto Investors Worldwide Bracing for Bullish Rally
As October approaches, investor sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with around 75.3% predict a bullish Uptober.
Of these, almost half (48.3%) expect market gains of between 5% and 10%, while 20.4% expect even higher growth, in the range of 10% to 20%. Some investors (around 6.6%) are even more optimistic, forecasting gains of more than 20%.
The global cryptocurrency market in “Uptober”
The prediction for Uptober is based mainly on bitcoin Historical Performance In October, with 38.7% of investors pointing to past market trends as a key factor.
| Year | bitcoin Price in October, Year to Date |
| 2014 | 12.95% |
| 2015 | -33.49% |
| 2016 | 14.71% |
| 2017 | 47.81% |
| 2018 | -3.83% |
| 2019 | 10.17% |
| 2020 | 27.7% |
| 2021 | 39.93% |
| 2022 | 5.56% |
| 2023 | 28.52% |
bitcoin performance year to date
Besides, A positive market sentimentsupported by 51.2% of respondentsfurther strengthens belief in an Uptober rebound. Other contributing factors include institutional adoptioncited by 16.3% of investors, and Key Catalyst Eventsmentioned by 15.6%.
Upcoming Cryptocurrency-Friendly Regulations They are also seen as influential by 22.8%, while 20.6% of investors highlight Strong technical breakout patterns as a reason for his optimism.
Among altcoins, ethereum It is considered to have the best performance, with 47.5% of investors favoring it for October earnings. Solarium and BNB They are also expected to increase, favored by 17.7% and 19.6% of investorsrespectively, along with bitcoin.
bitcoin's path to $80,000
A key question this month is whether bitcoin will reach the long-awaited $80,000 brand. only More than half of investors 51% of respondents believe bitcoin could reach this milestone during Uptober. Meanwhile, 49% think this goal will take longer to reach, with some expecting it to be that way. Late 2024 or early 2025.
This optimism is largely driven by the belief that a Trump wins the upcoming US presidential election It could significantly boost bitcoin prices. A potential Trump victory is seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies due to his administration’s historically relaxed stance on financial regulations and their impact on institutional investments.
Among the 49% of people who believe bitcoin will not hit $80,000 during Uptober, 19.3% expect to reach this milestone by the end of the year.A larger group, 73.6% expect bitcoin to hit $80,000 in the next yearwhile 7.1% have other deadlines in mind.
Market expectations for the fourth quarter of 2024: bullish sentiment prevails
Nearly half of all investors expect a bull market, with 45.9% predict an upward trendOthers, around 37.4%, anticipate the market to move sideways, while only 16.7% foresee a bear market, demonstrating an overall positive outlook for the rest of the year.
| Time | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| 2023 | +71.77% | +7.19% | -11.54% | +56.90% |
| 2022 | -1.46% | -56.2% | -2.57% | -14.75% |
| 2021 | +103.17% | -40.36% | +25.01% | +5.45% |
| 2020 | -10.83% | +42.33% | +17.97% | +168.02% |
| 2019 | +8.74% | +159.36% | -22.86% | -13.54% |
| 2018 | -49.7% | -7.71% | +3.61% | -42.16% |
| 2017 | +11.89% | +123.86% | +80.41% | +215.07% |
| 2016 | -3.06% | +62.06% | -9.41% | +58.17% |
| 2015 | -24.14% | +7.57% | -10.05% | +81.24% |
| 2014 | -37.42% | +40.43% | -39.74% | -16.70% |
bitcoin's historic quarterly returns in Q4
A key factor determining fourth quarter expectations is the upcoming United States presidential electionwith 50.4% of investors believing that it will significantly influence the cryptocurrency market.
Besides, large-scale institutional investments They are expected to play an important role, with 24.3% of participants identifying this as a key factor. Meanwhile, Upcoming Cryptocurrency-Friendly Regulations They are expected to contribute positively, with 33.4% citing potential regulatory changes as critical to future market growth.
artificial intelligence leads the crypto narrative in Q4
As Q4 approaches, ai has become the dominant topic in the cryptocurrency space. More than half of the investors surveyed, 55.7%, believe that artificial intelligence will determine the direction of the market in the coming months.
Other trends, such as nfts and the metaverseThey remain important, but lag behind ai: only 16.1% of investors highlight these areas. Gaming and Metaverse Projectsfavored by 10.6%, they are also still relevant but are seen as minor compared to ai.
As blockchain and ai continue to converge, it’s clear that investors are closely watching these developments for future opportunities.
Conclusion
As we approach October 2024, the cryptocurrency community is brimming with optimism. The firm belief in an “Uptober” scenario, coupled with positive expectations for Q4, suggests a potentially exciting period ahead for the cryptocurrency markets.
The upcoming US presidential election, potential regulatory changes and technological advancements, particularly in ai, are key factors to keep in mind as we head into the final quarter of 2024.
As always in the world of cryptocurrencies, the only certainty is change. Whether October 2024 brings a sudden surge or a “Rektober”-type surprise, it promises to be an eventful month for crypto enthusiasts.
Methodology
This study surveyed 1,200 people from different demographic groups. 56% of respondents belong to the Millennial age group (26-41 years old), while 25.3% belong to Generation Z (10-25 years old). Generation x, made up of people between 42-57 years old, accounts for 15.2% of participants, and 3.5% of respondents are 58 years old or older.
In terms of gender, the survey was predominantly female, with 64.7% women versus 34.7% men, while 0.7% preferred not to reveal their gender.
Geographically, almost half of respondents, 49.5%, are located in the Americas, which includes North, South and Central America, as well as the Caribbean. The next largest group comes from Europe, at 19.8%, followed by 20.7% from the Middle East and Africa. Lastly, 10.1% of respondents reside in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes areas such as South Asia, Northeast Asia and Oceania.
