Investment management firm VanEck has revealed its predictions for 2024, forecasting not only record highs for bitcoin but also an anticipated peak in the nft market, signaling a significant transformation in the industry.
The introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs is expected to align with the long-standing anticipation of a US recession, while the upcoming halving event may not deliver as much of an impact as previously anticipated.
New peak for bitcoin but no change for ethereum in 2024
bitcoin May Hit All-Time High in Q4 2024, VanEck Says crypto-predictions-for-2024/#binance-relinquishes-top-position-in-spot-trading” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener” data-wpel-link=”external”>prediction. With increased optimism over the dismantling of the SEC's adversarial regulatory stance, bitcoin could hit a new high on November 9, exactly three years since its last peak in November 2021.
Ether is not expected to surpass bitcoin in performance until after the halving and may surpass it during the year; however, a complete “change” is not anticipated. Despite posting strong performance in 2024, Ether is projected to see a decline in its market share as other smart contract platforms, such as Solana, gain traction due to a clearer and less uncertain scalability roadmap.
Meanwhile, the introduction of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could potentially coincide with the US recession.
VanEck also said that the fourth bitcoin halving scheduled for April 2024 will occur with minimal drama. As the issuance of new coins is cut in half, unprofitable miners will likely fold, allowing those with profitable energy sources to gain greater market share.
Despite this, public markets are expected to see minimal distress due to the improving financial positions of publicly traded miners, who currently control approximately 25% of the global hash rate. After the halving, at least one publicly traded miner is expected to see a tenfold increase by the end of the year.
Turning Points for Binance and DEX
Following Binance's $4 billion settlement with US regulators, it is expected to relinquish its position as the leading centralized exchange by volume. Competitors like OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget, backed by substantial funding, are set to compete for the top spot.
As Binance undergoes a rigorous three-year review by the Department of Justice, VanEck predicted that Coinbase's international futures market would thrive, surpassing a daily volume of $1 billion, a significant increase of approximately $200 million per day in November 2023.
The market share of cryptocurrency spot trading on decentralized exchanges (DEX) is expected to reach unprecedented levels, driven by the enhanced on-chain trading experience facilitated by high-performance chains like Solana.
At the same time, the adoption of significantly improved wallets, which integrate “account abstraction” as a crucial feature enabling automated payments, will help more users engage in on-chain transactions and adopt self-custody solutions.
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