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Polymarket betting data showed the biggest lead former President Donald Trump boasted about over Kamala Harris since he joined the race.
With less than three weeks until the US presidential election, Polymarket users are betting on an approximate 58% probability that Republican candidate Donald Trump will prevail over Democratic incumbent Kamala Harris. Sentiment on the decentralized prediction market saw a 15 percentage point difference in the odds of victory, the largest gap between the two presidential front-runners seen on the platform yet.
At press time, Harris' odds of winning the White House had fallen to 43.1%. Polymarket's “2024 Presidential Election Winner” market has been one of the most important election betting contracts of this political cycle. Betting volumes for this outcome approached $2 billion weeks before the November 4 election.
Donald Trump, the current leader of Polymarket, has taken over the majority of this volume, valued at more than $561 million, compared to Harris' $381 million. Both candidates have made policy promises aimed at currying favor with crypto voters throughout the campaign. Trump started the trend during a May gala, announcing himself as the crypto president and sharing pro-bitcoin (btc) rhetoric ever since.
Harris has taken a more cautious approach, promising to support “innovative new technologies.” Vice President Harris also released a campaign agenda to advocate for building wealth for Black crypto investors. According to crypto.news, Harris' team said it would support cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory frameworks to protect investors and increase access to capital formation services.
Meanwhile, rumors about electoral contracts on platforms like Polymarket have continued to reach new highs. The Polygon-based site was integrated into the Bloomberg terminal, a first for a crypto-native protocol, and was mentioned by billionaire x owner Elon Musk.
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Market competitors like Kalshi received court approval to list congressional contracts for U.S. clients, which could pave the way for bids around the presidential results. Projects like Wintermute were also reportedly exploring entering the on-chain prediction business.
