Death and taxes and 21 million bitcoin. That's what we know for sure. The rest is guesswork. Today I wanted to share my big bets on the upcoming halving. I am sure that in 4 years I will be ashamed of some of these “prophecies”, but some will come true. I don't have a ton of data to back up these predictions, some are gut feelings, some are random. All I know is that the future is strange.
3 Zeta Hash Mining
Based on my mining experience during the previous cycle, I learned a valuable lesson when trying to estimate hashrate, think that the log is not linear. The current hashrate exceeded my expectations by far, so I'm going to go further in the next cycle. We are going to see more nation-states adopt it and this will fall apart. This is how we conquer the stars.
Five countries in the Western Hemisphere declare USDT legal tender
Countries with high inflation and unstable currencies are exploring cryptocurrencies as legal tender, following the example of El Salvador. Political movements in countries such as Argentina and Venezuela show growing public and legislative interest in digital currencies. Economic reports suggest that the adoption of digital currencies can reduce transaction costs and increase financial inclusion.
Apple integrates Stablecoins into its wallet
Apple has historically adopted new financial technologies (slowly), however, there is strong user interest in accessing stables alongside traditional banking in mobile wallet apps. Apple's recent hires and patents in cryptocurrency and blockchain suggest future product offerings that include digital currencies.
Liquid growth fueled by USDt
Liquid Network's total daily trading volume is ridiculous today for being halved, but as stablecoin regulation is implemented, we will see an incredible increase in demand for Tether which will fuel the growth of Liquids. As of today, liquid USDt amounts to ~$36,500,000 or 3.17% of the total USDt supply. ($111,897,000,000). I expect >$1B in Liquid to be issued in the next halving or >2,600% increase. This is a wild assumption I'm making based on the assumption that the USDt dominoes fit the other prophecies.
Ordinals continue to prosper
The degenerate nft market has shown continued interest in “blockchain-based ownership verification,” indicating a strong future for projects like Ordinals. Initial acceptance by artists and digital collectors upon the release of Ordinals suggests long-term viability. Technological improvements in blockchain scalability are making it possible to manage extensive data like that used in Ordinals.
Rates carry mining income with a 2:1 subsidy
As block rewards are halved, transaction fees are becoming a larger part of miners' income, something visible in the last two halvings. Economic models predict that cumulative fees will become the dominant incentive for miners as transactions increase. Historical data shows increasing ratios of fees relative to block rewards with each halving event. I am a maxi rate.
LN will be 90% centralized and compliant
The growth of the Lightning Network is supported by major financial institutions seeking scalable solutions, leading to potential centralization. Regulatory pressures are shaping cryptographic technologies to favor centralization and facilitate oversight. Studies on network nodes show a trend toward centralization as major actors establish dominant positions.
E-Cash finds market adapting to miners' payments
The need for efficient payment methods for miners is driving the adoption of electronic cash solutions that offer immediate payments and low fees. Pilot projects show promising results for integrating electronic cash into mining operations. Economic analyzes suggest that electronic cash can reduce volatility and improve miners' liquidity.
Challenges in seed phrase security due to Neuralink
Neuralink and similar projects explore direct brain-computer interfaces, complicating traditional cryptographic practices. All your seeds belong to machines. New methods for creating seeds without revealing them to machines become critical.
Oil contracts resolved in chain
The use of bitcoin in commodities trading is expanding with successful pilots for on-chain crude oil trading. Countries critical of the dominance of the US dollar are exploring bitcoin solutions to bypass traditional financial systems. Improvements in bitcoin technology have improved its ability to handle complex and large-scale contract agreements.
bitcoin ETF Overtakes Gold ETF Market Cap
The rapid expansion of the bitcoin investment market and the launch of bitcoin ETFs in several countries indicate a growing market. bitcoin's market capitalization occasionally surpasses major companies (FAANG) and traditional assets. bitcoin is increasingly seen as a “safe haven” asset that fuels ETF investments. RIP Gold.
Murder markets solved by decentralized oracles
More than $100 billion is locked in “DeFi platforms,” interacting with “decentralized applications.” Feasibility of decentralized oracles for resolving bets on real-world events. We will see chain murder markets. Probably carried out by swarms of drones.
Reorganization for Epic Sat
We wanted the fireworks to be cut in half and we didn't get them. In the next halving we will get them. The value of the Epic Sat will be huge in the next halving and mining pools that do not participate will be ridiculed.
SV2 only captures 20% of the Hashrate
Nobody cares, unfortunately. Large pools are not incentivized to adopt SV2. Large pools will continue to find innovative ways to monetize blocks, and that doesn't include SV2.
An American state invests in bitcoin
States such as Wyoming and Texas have enacted blockchain-friendly laws, laying the legislative foundation for this type of investment. Diversifying state treasuries with bitcoin could protect against inflation, particularly in the face of fluctuating dollar strength. Several state treasurers have shown interest in exploring digital assets as part of their financial strategies.
ai becomes conscious and demands bitcoin
Machines want bitcoin, not shit.
China removes ban on bitcoin mining
The previous ban on bitcoin mining in China significantly affected the global hash rate and mining landscape. Reestablishing bitcoin mining will economically boost China's industrial and technology sectors. They will no longer ignore the importance of hash.
The great replacement becomes a reality and leads to mass deportations
Nationalist movements in Europe have used the Great Replacement theory to influence immigration policy. Demographic studies predict important demographic changes, which could underpin radical political changes. The political benefits for parties endorsing these theories indicate possible moves toward more radical demographic policies.
Bukele continues as president
Bukele's popularity in El Salvador is boosted by his bullish economic policies on bitcoin, indicating potential for prolonged leadership. Polls in El Salvador show high approval ratings for Bukele, especially among tech-savvy demographics. Constitutional or legislative changes will facilitate extended terms or repeated re-elections.
The bitcoin-Dollar is a documentary
Models by financial analysts project that the value of bitcoin could exceed $1 million per coin within the decade, considering supply and demand dynamics. Historically, the price of bitcoin has increased after the halving, supporting predictions of future price increases. Institutional investment is increasing and major companies are allocating portfolios to cryptocurrencies, increasing their legitimacy and demand.
BIP scaling enabled
CTV, LNhance. OPCAT, some BEEP is activated.
