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The approval of a Solana ETF will likely depend on changes within the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the impending victory of Donald Trump.
Following the recent approval of bitcoin (btc) and ethereum (eth) spot ETFs, VanEck is now seeking approval for its own Solana (SOL) ETF.
However, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency space is that many regulatory challenges lie ahead for any altcoin ETF other than eth or btc. Analysts at VanEck have acknowledged that substantial regulatory changes are necessary before the Solana ETF can gain approval.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Matthew Sigel, director of digital asset research at VanEck, discussed the hurdles facing Solana ETF approval.
Regulatory hurdles for Solana
He noted that current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has set strict conditions for altcoin ETFs, including the existence of a regulated futures market for Solana, which currently does not exist.
Sigel took issue with this requirement, arguing that shipping and uranium ETFs do not rely on futures markets to determine prices. He speculated that this requirement could be a deliberate tactic to postpone the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs.
“(Gensler) has created that situation since he took office. There are a number of ETFs that trade on exchanges where the futures market is irrelevant to price discovery,” Sigel said.
Sigel suggests that a change in the SEC’s stance may depend on new leadership after the 2024 election. He highlights pro-crypto voter sentiment over the election results, prompting both major parties to take notice.
Donald Trump
“I can confirm that,” was Sigel's simple response to speculation that VanEck's Solana spot ETF proposal is heavily dependent on Donald Trump winning the US presidency.
Former President Donald Trump has changed his stance on cryptocurrencies and now expresses more positive views after receiving significant donations from cryptocurrency companies. This change could influence his future policies.
There is also speculation that a shift in the SEC’s approach to cryptocurrencies could occur even if President Biden is re-elected, as some Democrats have expressed support for pro-cryptocurrency policies.
VanEck’s Solana spot ETF proposal is contingent on the outcome of the 2024 election, with the application deadline set for March 2025. The Solana ETF proposal has already generated significant interest, with Solana’s price increasing in volume following the filing.