Kamala Harris's chances plummet on Polymarket as Donald Trump regains lead

At Polymarket, election bettors are once again leaning towards Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's odds fell to 47% over the weekend, down from a previous 50/50 chance.

Trump rises again to 53% in Polymarket

From Trump odd The probability of winning the November election had peaked at 71% in July but fell to 44% in August after President Joe Biden announced he would not run, paving the way for Harris' candidacy.

Shortly afterward, Harris’s odds rose to over 55% in early-mid August, positioning her as the front-runner. However, her support among Polymarket traders has declined in recent weeks, while Trump’s has steadily risen above 50%, putting him back in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds.

Trump’s recent stance in favor of cryptocurrencies stands in contrast to his 2021 comment, in which he called the asset class a “scam.”

In July, the former president gave a keynote speech at a bitcoin conference in Nashville, where he pledged to support the btc mining sector despite criticism over its significant electricity consumption. Recently, Trump launched a new set of nfts, branded as digital trading cards with phrases like “crypto president.”

Previous similar nft sales have generated millions, though it's unclear how much Trump personally earned.

Trump's strong appeal to cryptocurrency investors

A recent UDF crypto-pays-off/” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener” data-wpel-link=”external”>survey reveals that Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies in the 2024 US presidential election appears to be paying off. Specifically, he leads Harris by 12 percentage points (50% vs. 38%) among likely voters who own cryptocurrencies or related assets.

On the other hand, Harris has a 12-point lead (53% to 41%) among voters who do not own cryptocurrencies. The notable preference for Trump among crypto holders is not attributed to other influential factors, highlighting his effective appeal to this demographic.

Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson and executive director of the survey, said:

“Trump has been trying to reach out to the cryptocurrency community and it seems to have paid off. It can be easy to dismiss them as insignificant, but I don’t think people realize exactly how widespread cryptocurrency ownership is. Republicans have historically had a hard time reaching out to young people and people of color. Support for crypto is largely a divisive issue that could win over voters who might otherwise lean more Democratic.”

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