From the prospects of btc reaching $100,000 in 2024, to search interest for the “bitcoin Halving,” here is a data-driven look at this rare event.
bitcoin is preparing for its fourth halving, and no two events are the same.
The markets are unrecognizable from where they were four years ago.
Here are five fascinating facts about the 2024 halving.
1. There isn't much bitcoin left
bitcoin has been structured, so most of its total supply is already in circulation.
After the halving, there will be just 1.3 million btc left for miners to discover, and that will last until 2140.
From now on, only 450 btc will be created per day, which means that only 657,000 btc will hit the market between now and 2028.
2. Google searches for “bitcoin halving” are breaking records
While there were some modest spikes in 2016 and 2020, a record number of internet users are scrambling to learn more about the 2024 halving.
Google Trends Data bitcoin%20halving” target=”_blank” rel=””>sample Nigeria, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Cyprus and Slovenia top the list of countries most interested in the impending 50% cut to block rewards.
3. BlackRock is feeling *very* optimistic
The world's largest asset management company recently made waves by launching an exchange-traded fund based on the spot price of bitcoin.
This means that for the first time, many institutional investors have been able to gain exposure to the halving without directly owning the digital asset.
BlackRock executive Jay Jacobs says the iShares bitcoin Trust, which now has $18 billion in assets under management, is the fastest-growing ETF of all time… and we're still in the early stages. Last week, he wrote on x:
“A large portion of advisors and institutions are still beginning their educational journey about bitcoin to ultimately determine if it makes sense to add it to their portfolio. For many, this will be a journey of months or even years in duration.”
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In a recent blog post, Jacobs bitcoin-halving” target=”_blank” rel=””>saying
He also shared a chart showing that btc has generally generated the strongest returns in the calendar year after halving: 5,428% in 2013 and 1,375% in 2017.
However, things were a little different during the third halving in 2020. btc's gains of 305% that year far outpaced the 60% growth that followed in 2021.
With btc hitting a new all-time high ahead of the halving for the first time, it remains to be seen how long the current bull run will last.
4. bitcoin Ordinals Are Also Appearing
A relatively recent development in the bitcoin ecosystem relates to Ordinals, effectively this blockchain's answer to non-fungible tokens.
They allow rare messages, images and videos to be inscribed in a single satoshi, which is equivalent to one hundred millionth of a bitcoin.
Demand for Ordinals has skyrocketed, even though Binance has stopped supporting these crypto collectibles.
CryptoSlam Data! shows that Ordinals sales have reached $13.8 million in just 24 hours, more than ethereum and Solana combined.
There is also particular excitement about the first sat mined after the halving, especially considering it will be only one of four that will exist.
Casey Rodarmor, who created the Ordinals protocol, has saying It will have “epic” rarity.
bitcoin-halving-will-be-reorged/” target=”_blank” rel=””>According For Ordiscan founder Tristan, being chosen as the lucky miner to receive this sat could result in a huge payday that far outweighs any reduction in block rewards. He wrote in a blog post:
“Knowing that rare satellites sell for $100,000 and that the supply of them is 100 times that of Epic satellites (410 vs. 3), we can safely say that Epic satellites will probably be valued at least 10 times more That sats Epic. Weird sitting.”
Tristan, Ordiscan founder
The total price, we hear you ask? A fantastic million dollars.
5. Short-term prospects are uncertain
It's very easy to dismiss random bitcoin price predictions, but in the betting markets, people are putting their money where their mouth is.
And if Polymarket odds are to be believed, btc's prospects don't look all that promising in recent months.
The latest statistics suggest that bettors believe there is only a 46% chance of bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year, and sentiment has declined in recent weeks. Only 11% believe we will see $250,000 in December.
With btc briefly falling to its lowest price since February as the halving approached, 17% believe the world's largest cryptocurrency will not surpass $60,000 on the same day.