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VanEck believes ethereum's Layer-2 protocols will reach a collective market capitalization of $1 trillion by 2030, according to a new research report published on April 3.
The prediction was revealed in a ethereum-layer-2s-valuation-prediction-by-2030/”>Detailed analysis led by VanEck senior investment analyst Patrick Bush and head of digital research Matthew Sigel.
VanEck's forecast of a $1 trillion market cap for ethereum Layer-2 by 2030 reflects belief in the technology's potential to significantly improve blockchain scalability and efficiency, marking a notable shift in the blockchain landscape. digital assets and their underlying technologies.
Solving for scalability
The investment firm's analysis evaluated the burgeoning Layer 2 ecosystem across several critical dimensions: transaction pricing, developer experience, user experience, trust assumptions, and ecosystem size.
According to the report, Layer 2 technologies, specifically Optimistic Roll-Ups and Zero-Knowledge Roll-Ups, are solving ethereum's biggest challenge: scalability.
These solutions aim to expand ethereum's capability for transaction processing without compromising its core attributes of security and decentralization. The analysis points to the EIP-4844 update as a key development, introducing “Blob Space” to significantly reduce data publishing costs, thereby financially benefiting Layer 2 operations.
According to the report, the cost reductions enabled by EIP-4844 are critical to improving Layer 2 profit margins.
The report also explored the revenue models of Layer 2 solutions, emphasizing transaction sequencing as a primary source of revenue. He examined on- and off-chain cost structures, particularly highlighting the costly testing mechanisms that zero-knowledge roll-ups employ.
TVL
Assessing the competitive landscape, the study predicts that by 2030, Layer 2 will capture a significant portion of the transaction value and Total Value Locked (TVL) within the ethereum ecosystem.
This growth is partly attributed to the potential for Maximum Extractable Value (MEV) to increase Layer 2 revenue. VanEck's analysis suggests a future where Layer-2 platforms can offer competitive advantages over ethereum in specific market segments .
However, the report maintains a neutral tone regarding the speculative nature of the crypto market and the uncertain future of Layer 2 token valuations. It anticipates the emergence of numerous use case-specific Layer 2 rollups, which indicating a broader application of blockchain technology beyond finance to sectors such as gaming, social media and infrastructure.
VanEck's analysis presents a compelling vision of the future, one in which ethereum's Layers 2 evolve from nascent technologies to central cogs in the global blockchain ecosystem.
