This is how much you would need to spend to execute 51% attacks on Bitcoin and Ethereum

A 51% attack occurs when a single network miner or a group of miners controls more than half of the hash rate of a blockchain network. In theory, this would allow the attacker to prevent transactions from taking place on the blockchain, alter the sequence of new transactions, and potentially reverse past transactions (known as “double spending”) by altering data on the blockchain.

However, a recent study indicates that executing such attacks is financially infeasible within the current security configurations of bitcoin and ethereum.

bitcoin and ethereum are not worth attacking

Referring to December 31, 2023, and considering an ethereum price of $2,279, a total staked eth amounting to 28.8 million eth, and a validator count of 899,840 validators, CoinMetrics calculations They suggest that an attacker would need around $34.39 billion to execute a 34% attack on the network.

If the attack began on December 31, 2023, the attacker would need until June 14, 2024 to surpass the 33% threshold to gain control of the network.

Attacking bitcoin would also be equally crazy. Researchers estimate that the attacker would face production costs of more than $20 billion, since it would need to manufacture almost 40 million units of the S9.

Using the most powerful ASIC available, such as the upcoming Bitmain S21, would cost around $5.6 billion by December 2023, about a quarter of the expense of using the S9. This estimate is based on a unit cost of $2,240 and a production volume of 2.5 million machines.

While more cost-effective than the “naïve” approach, the research stated that manufacturing at this efficiency and scale would require cooperation with the manufacturer. However, the attacker would likely encounter supply chain problems and possible retaliation.

“Our findings suggest that the current state of security in bitcoin and ethereum makes attacks economically infeasible and provides empirical evidence of the Nash equilibrium in these networks.”

The study concluded that bitcoin and ethereum security measures have reached a level where the costs and dangers related to 51% of the attacks significantly outweigh the potential benefits. It indicates that hostile actions become less attractive compared to alternative strategies such as honest participation in the network or refraining from attacking.

51% of attack risks extend beyond major blockchains

The assessment may be true for major blockchains like bitcoin and ethereum, but the same cannot be said for many other networks that have emerged in the last decade.

bitcoin SV, a blockchain formed as a spinoff of bitcoin Cash and championed primarily by entrepreneurs Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright, experienced three cases of 51% attacks in 2021. Similarly, the lesser-known cryptocurrency Firo, focused on Privacy, formerly known as Zcoin, faced a similar test. Not even ethereum Classic was spared from rogue actors.

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