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A JPMorgan executive suggested on January 12 that securities regulators are equally likely to approve or disapprove an ethereum spot ETF in the coming months.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, CEO of JPMorgan, said ethereum-etf-approval-chance-jpmorgan”>The block:
“In our view, for (the US Securities and Exchange Commission) to approve ethereum spot ETFs in May, it would need to classify ethereum as a commodity (similar to bitcoin) rather than a security. This is far from a fact, and I would do it. “There is no more than a 50% chance that the SEC will classify ethereum as a commodity before May.”
He added that the SEC is “still indicating that “continues to view all other cryptocurrencies outside of bitcoin as securities.”
Panigirtzoglou's comments allude to a bitcoin-011023″>statement from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler regarding spot bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) approvals on January 11.
There, Gensler said that the latest approvals relate only to ETPs that hold bitcoin (btc) and identified bitcoin as a non-valuable commodity. Gensler added that the approvals should not indicate the SEC's views on the status of other crypto assets' values; He also stated that the “vast majority of cryptoassets are investment contracts” and are therefore subject to federal securities laws.
Other sources predict up to a 70% chance of approval
Despite Panigirtzoglou's low approval estimate, some sources place higher odds on an upcoming timely approval of the ethereum ETF. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has forecast a 70% chance of such approval by May.
A prediction market on Polymarket ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31?tid=1705094839911″>suggests that There is a 57% chance that an ethereum ETF will be approved before May 31. Those odds are based on more than $15,000 in cryptocurrency bets rather than any individual's personal stance.
Predictions are largely focused on May because the SEC must decide on a VanEck spot ethereum ETF application by May 23. Other applicants, including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, ARK Invest, and Invesco Galaxy, have also submitted ethereum spot ETF applications, but with later decision deadlines. .
The SEC approved a number of ETFs including ethereum futures in October 2023, but has not yet approved an ethereum spot ETF.
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