On a larger scale, the price of ethereum has been declining, erasing almost all of its gains since early 2024.
However, things could be about to change soon, as the events of the past 24 hours hinted at.
Technical analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
The daily chart
On the daily chart, the asset has been consolidating in a broad range between the $2,100 and $2,700 levels as the decline seems to have stopped. However, the market structure remains bearish as the price would need to at least reclaim the $2,700 level to make a higher high.
Meanwhile, if we look at the recent range, recent moves seem to indicate the formation of a bottom in the price. Therefore, although it is too early to anticipate it, a new uptrend seems likely in the coming months. This is, of course, if the support level of $2,100 remains intact.
The 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows a clearer demonstration of the recent price action. As is evident, the market immediately bounced off the $2100 support zone and has been gradually moving higher since then.
While the momentum is still weak, it could be only a matter of time before an impulsive move towards the $2,700 resistance level occurs as the bullish 4-hour candlesticks have been strengthening recently.
Sentiment analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
ethereum Exchange Reserve
While ethereum price is seemingly bottoming out according to technical analysis, a worrying signal emerges from on-chain analysis. This chart presents ethereum’s exchange reserve, the total amount of eth held on exchanges. The metric is an indicator of supply, as these coins can be sold at any time and add selling pressure.
As the chart shows, the overall trend for the FX reserves metric has been downwards, as investors appear to have been accumulating in tandem since last year. However, short-term fluctuations also matter, as every time the FX reserve has recently breached its 30-day moving average, a price drop follows.
The same behavior is occurring as foreign exchange reserves have recently increased and are already above their 30-day moving average. Therefore, further price declines are still possible in the short term if there is not enough demand to meet supply.
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