NEWSLETTER
The native token of ethereum, Ethher (eth), has ventured in overall territory several times against bitcoin (btc) in recent months, but the Altcoin has not yet shown signs of finding a price fund. The commercial situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and the structure of the eth market suggests that it could be repeated in the second quarter to the third quarter of this year.
Repeated breakdowns of Ether point to more inconveniences
The relative force index (RSI) within 3 days of eth remains below 30, a level that usually indicates a possible rebound.
However, historical patterns show that the previous falls in oversized conditions have not been able to mark a definitive background. Each instance has been followed by another lower leg, which reflects a persistent bearish impulse.
Since mid -2014, the eth/btc torque has suffered repeated decompositions, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%and 19.5%in a rapid succession. In addition, the EMA of 50 days and 200 days are in the lowest trend, confirming the lack of bullish force.
x -based market analyst <a target="_blank" data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1899848238506647940″ rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank” text=”null” title=”https://x.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1899848238506647940″>@Carpenoctom He highlighted the negative price yield of eth, noting that the eth/btc torque has not been able to confirm a bullish divergence, when the price produces lower minimums, but the RSI produces higher minimums, in its weekly chart.
ETHE eth exits and chain data suggest more weakness
He “<a target="_blank" data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/TedPillows/status/1901941507935928674″ rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank” text=”null” title=”https://x.com/TedPillows/status/1901941507935928674″>damnedThe eth/btc lower trend stands out compared to the broader cryptography market. This includes persistent outputs at the ETF Spot eth based in the United States, as well as the negative data of the chain.
The Net <a target="_blank" data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://farside.co.uk/eth/” rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank” text=”null” title=”https://farside.co.uk/eth/”>They have fallen 9.8% in March to $ 2.54 billion. In comparison, bitcoin Spot's ETF network flows <a target="_blank" data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/” rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank” text=”null” title=”https://farside.co.uk/btc/”>They are below 2.35% in the same period at $ 35.74 billion.
Source: Ted pillows
Meanwhile, ethereum gas rates, measured by the daily consumption of medium gas in Mainnet, were sitting around 1.12 GWEI from March, for almost 50 times what they were only one year ago.
ethereum Media Gas Tares versus Price eth (in terms of dollar). Source: Nansen
“Despite the second Rally of the eth price at the end of 2024 years, the activity in Mainnet, measured by gas consumption, never recovered,” the Nansen data analysis platform <a target="_blank" data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://research.nansen.ai/articles/eth-a-holistic-view-into-2025?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=rpcontent” rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank” text=”null” title=”https://research.nansen.ai/articles/eth-a-holistic-view-into-2025?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=rpcontent”>wrote In your latest report, adding:
“This is downstream of some things, but much of the activity has changed to Solana and L2S for 2024”.
Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bassist with eth due to their unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to btc and lower value altcoins with the market approach.
The lack of demand for eth in relation to bitcoin is even more visible in its future volume data.
In particular, the volume of bitcoin futures has recovered 32% of its minimum of February 23, reaching $ 57 billion on March 18. In comparison, the commercial activity of eth remains most flat, according to the Ochain data platform Glass node.
bitcoin, ethereum and Solana futures volume. Source: Glassnode
The eth/btc torque could fall another 15%
The eth/btc pair is forming a bear flag pattern in the daily chart, characterized by a consolidation period within the convergent tendency lines that are formed after a strong decrease.
Related: Standing slopes of 2025 eth price estimate at 60% at $ 4K
A bear flag is technically resolved when the price falls below the lower trend line and falls as much as the height of the previous lower trend. The application of the same eth/btc rule leads its target on April to 0.01968 btc, 15% less than current levels.
In addition, the EMA of 50 days and 200 days remain in an acute downward trajectory, with the eth/btc torque that is quoted well below these key levels, which indicates a persistent bear market structure.
Despite the imminent downward risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if eth/btc breaks above the higher resistance of the flag and turns 50 days in support.
This article does not contain advice or investment recommendations. Each investment and trade movement implies risk, and readers must carry out their own investigation by making a decision.
