<img src="https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/bitcoin–ethereum-forest.jpg” />
bitcoin (btc) and ethereum (eth) have rallied 21% and 18%, respectively, from their lows recorded after the August 4 crash.
However, Aurelie Barthere, a senior research analyst at Nansen, told CryptoSlate that the worst might not be over yet. She explained:
“btc (and eth) have touched local lows, but the daily trend still looks negative: the 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average.”
Barthere added that this creates the technical pattern known as the “Death Cross,” which typically precedes a price drop.
Therefore, to avoid a bearish signal on his chart, the Nansen analyst explains that btc needs to stay above the $62,000 price level. However, the current all-time high zone between $70,000 and $71,000 remains a strong resistance threshold.
Barthere added:
“Psychologically, some traders have been affected by the sell-offs in March and July and this could be a very difficult threshold to cross.”
Meanwhile, eth shows a strong correlation with btc, especially during sell-offs. The analyst notes that eth has already shown a Death Cross on its daily chart and needs to hold above $2,700, which is a significant resistance tested in January and this week.
Cryptocurrency market slowed by US elections
The sell-off in risk assets seen earlier this week is attributed to the unwinding of the yen carry trade as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) cut interest rates too quickly.
Bitfinex analysts shared with the publication that the BOJ's move will allow for a more gradual unwinding process, acting as a bailout for most leveraged traders, particularly in the US.
Therefore, the most significant narrative impacting cryptocurrency markets more than any other is the US election, according to Bitfinex analysts.
The analysts added:
“As Democratic candidate Harris has seen her chances of winning rise to almost match those of Republican candidate former President Trump, this is inducing uncertainty in markets, especially the cryptocurrency market.”
At the time of writing, Harris and Trump are tied with a 49% probability on the Polymarket prediction market, with the Democratic candidate x.com/Polymarket/status/1821870540539232372″>briefly overcoming Former US President this morning.
According to analysts:
“The clear stance the market has shown based on recent events is that Trump’s victory is being viewed as a net positive for cryptocurrencies and vice versa for Harris’ victory.”
If the current odds of Trump winning are at their lowest point, Bitfinex analysts expect the market recovery to continue.
