NEWSLETTER
The bitcoin market has long been defined by its seemingly immutable four -year cycle, a three -year pattern of increasing prices followed by strong correction. However, a seismic change in Washington's policy, led by former President Donald Trump, can break this cycle and mark the beginning of a new era of prolonged growth for the cryptocurrency industry.
Matt Hougan, investment director of Bitwise Asset Management, recently raised an intriguing question: Can Trump's executive order break crypto's four years? His answer, although nuanced, leans towards an emphatic Yeah.
The four -year cycle: a summary
Hougan clarifies his personal belief that the four -year bitcoin market cycle is not promoted by half of bitcoin. He affirms: “People try to link it to the 'half of half' quadrane of bitcoin, but those halvings are misaligned with the cycle, having occurred in 2016, 2020 and 2024″.
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The four -year cycle of bitcoin has been historically driven by a combination of feeling of investors, technological advances and market dynamics. In general, a bull execution arises after a significant catalyst, whether improvements in IT infrastructure or institutional adoption, which attracts the new capital and feeds speculation. Over time, leverage accumulates, excesses and an important event arise, such as regulatory repressions or financial fraud, introduces a brutal correction.
This pattern has been developed repeatedly: from the first days of the implosion of Mount Gox in 2014 to the Boom and Bust of ICO of 2017-2018, and more recently, the disappeared crisis of 2022 with the collapse of FTX and three capital arrows . However, every winter has been followed by an even stronger resurgence, which culminated in bitcoin's last race stimulated by the general adoption of bitcoin ETF in 2024.
Related: Nasdaq proposes the refunds in kind for Blackrock's bitcoin ETF
THE EXECUTIVE ORDER: A CHANGE OF GAME
The fundamental question that Hougan explores is whether Trump's recent executive order, which prioritizes the development of the digital asset ecosystem in the United States, will interrupt the established cycle. The order, which describes a clear regulatory framework and even provides for a storage of national digital assets, represents the most upward position in bitcoin of any sitting or former president of the United States.
The implications are deep:
- Regulatory clarity: By eliminating legal uncertainty, the EO paves the way for institutional capital to flow to bitcoin on an unprecedented scale.
- Integration of Wall Street: With the SEC and the financial regulators now pro-crypto, the main banks can enter the space, offering the custody of bitcoin, loans and structured products to their customers.
- Government adoption: The concept of a National Reserve of Digital Assets suggests a future in which the United States Treasury could have bitcoin as a reserve asset, solidifying its status as digital gold.
These developments will not develop overnight, but their cumulative effect could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the bitcoin market. Unlike the previous cycles that were driven by speculative retail euphoria, this change is backed by institutional adoption and regulatory support, a much more stable base.
Related: Why hundreds of companies will buy bitcoin in 2025
The end of crypto Winters?
If the story was repeated, bitcoin would continue his rise until 2025 before facing a significant setback in 2026. However, Hougan suggests that this time may be different. Although it recognizes the risk of speculative excess and bubbles driven by leverage, it argues that the large institutional adoption scale will prevent the type of prolonged bears markets seen in the past.
This is a crucial distinction. In previous cycles, bitcoin lacked a solid base of investors oriented to value. Today, with the ETFs that facilitate pensions, coverage funds and sovereign wealth funds to assign bitcoin, the asset no longer depends solely on retail enthusiasm. The result? Corrections can still occur, but they will probably be less deep and shorter.
What comes next?
bitcoin has already crossed the $ 100,000 brand, and the projections of industry leaders, including Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink, suggest that it could reach $ 700,000 in the coming years. If Trump policies accelerate institutional adoption, the typical four -year -old pattern could be replaced by a more traditional asset class growth trajectory, since gold responded at the end of the gold standard in the 1970s.
Related: The Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink, forecasts $ 700k bitcoin price amid inflation concerns
While the risks remain, including unforeseen regulatory investments and excessive leverage, the direction of the trip is clear: bitcoin is becoming a conventional financial asset. If the four -year cycle was driven by bitcoin's childhood and speculative nature, its maturation can make such cycles obsolete.
Conclusion
For more than a decade, investors have used the four -year cycle as a road map for bitcoin market movements. But Trump's executive order could be the decisive moment that interrupts this pattern, replacing it with a more sustained and institutionally driven growth phase. As Wall Street, corporations and even governments adopt more and more bitcoin, the question is no longer Yeah crypto Winter will come in 2026, but rather If it will come at all.
Discharge of responsibility: This article is intended only for informative purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct an exhaustive independent investigation before making investment decisions.
