Scott Johnsson, a prominent attorney at Davis Polk, has shed light on a possible clue regarding the approval of a bitcoin spot ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on November 2. The speculation follows the SEC’s decision not to challenge the ruling of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which favored Grayscale’s bid to convert its bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a bitcoin ETF. cash.
Johnsson’s tweet drew attention to an upcoming closed-door meeting scheduled for November 2. developer: “November 2: I believe this is the first closed meeting of the commissioners since the Grayscale appeal deadline expired and the mandate was delivered. The agenda includes the resolution of contentious claims and administrative procedures. “There were leaks about the closed-door meeting prior to the launch of BITO.” And he added: “It is a date of interest, but there is no certainty that we will receive any news.”
Is history repeating itself for bitcoin?
This closed-door meeting, described in the “Sunshine Law Notice,” is scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on the aforementioned date and, although closed to the public, its topics will revolve around “the initiation and resolution of administrative procedures” and “resolution of litigation claims”.
The bitcoin community is watching this developing scenario closely, especially after the ProShares bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), the first US bitcoin futures ETF, took off on October 19, 2021. Not only did it mark a important milestone for bitcoin, but BITO was the fastest ETF to accumulate over $1 billion in assets after its launch.
It is interesting to note that just a few days before the launch of BITO, Bloomberg highlighted a leak from a closed SEC meeting held on October 14. bitcoin-futures-etf-said-not-to-face-sec-opposition-at-deadline#xj4y7vzkg” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>informed that the SEC “is prepared to allow” the first US bitcoin futures ETF to begin trading” after they “were filed under mutual fund rules that, according to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, They provide ‘significant protections to investors.’”
With Grayscale’s bitcoin spot ETF on the horizon, Johnsson alludes that a leak similar to the one in October 2021 could be on the horizon. The big question then will be whether the SEC will only approve Grayscale or all applicants at the same time.
In recent weeks, the SEC has received numerous amendments from applicants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, and VanEck. ETF experts at Bloomberg believe this is a good sign that a bitcoin ETF is close to being approved, while the SEC is trying to get all applicants on the same page with the amendments.
Bloomberg’s James Seyffart tweeted yesterday on Valkyrie’s most recent amendment: “UPDATE: Valkyrie Funds joins the bandwagon of prospectus amendments for its bitcoin Spot ETF. “Things keep moving behind the scenes.”
They also highlighted Johnsson’s observations on this influx of amendments, mentioning, “The SEC disclosure review cadence is typically between 2-4 weeks for a typical S-1. It will be interesting to see if we receive any loaded comments from the SEC and/or new amendments from companies like Ark/21 and others in the next two weeks.”
Additionally, it highlighted an important highlight from SEC Chairman Gensler’s calendar dated June 15, 2023, the day Blackrock filed its spot ETF application. Johnsson he pointed, “Pretty hectic and includes a White House (WH) interagency meeting and a meeting with the president of the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA). The interagency meeting was the first he had in more than two years as president of the SEC.”
Is punctual rejection of ETFs still possible?
Despite the hopeful signs, some believe that Gensler could unexpectedly turn the tide in bitcoin ETF spot applications. Dave Nadig frames this as a possible “semi-comical Gensler pull,” Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas call such a move “incredibly sadistic.”
Responding to these speculations, Johnsson commented“Ha, I’ve spent weeks or months trying to figure out a way to make sense of this process and result in a Gensler rug. “It has been difficult… but the threat always lurks.”
At press time, bitcoin was trading at $34,314.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
