Why Bitcoin wins regardless of the result of Trump's commercial war

In an escalation of global economic friction, President Trump's tax tariffs have discarded financial markets this week, crossing the actions, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. However, a new <a target="_blank" href="https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/tariffs-ultimately-will-be-good-for-bitcoin” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>memorandum Bitwise asset management suggests that these winds against bitcoin could promote new heights, regardless of whether Trump's strategy is successful or fails.

At the beginning of the week, the cryptographic market witnessed a severe settlement sale. bitcoin decreased by approximately 5%, while ethereum and XRP suffered even more clear losses: 17%and 18%, respectively. The immediate catalyst was Trump's imposition of a 25% rate for most imports in Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% rate on China. In retaliation, these commercial partners announced their own countermeasures.

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The US dollar reacted by jumping more than 1% compared to the main currencies. That, combined with the persistent weekend illiquidity in cryptographic markets, triggered a wave of forced settlements such as leverage merchants sold in the descending current. According to Bitwise's investment director, Matt Hougan, as well as $ 10 billion in leverage positions was eliminated in what he described as “the largest liquidation event in crypto's history.”

Despite the dramatic price action, Bitwise's head of strategies Alfa, Jeffrey Park, remains optimistic about bitcoin's trajectory. He points out two guide ideas that shape his upward thesis: the 'Triffin dilemma' and the widest objective of President Trump to restructure the commercial dynamics of the United States.

The Triffin dilemma highlights the conflict between a currency that serves as a global reserve, which generates consistent demand and overvaluation, and the need to execute persistent commercial deficits to provide sufficient currency abroad. While this state allows the United States to provide low price, it also exerts sustained pressure on national manufacturing and exports.

“Trump wants to get rid of the negatives, but maintain the positive aspects,” Park explains, suggesting that tariff in coordination with other main economies.

The two scenarios: bitcoin wins, Fiat loses

Park argues that bitcoin will benefit under two different results from Trump's current commercial policy:

Scenario 1: Trump manages to weaken the dollar (while keeping the low rates)

If Trump can maneuver a multilateral agreement, for an 'Square 2.0' square, to reduce the overvaluation of the dollar without increasing long -term interest rates, risk appetite among US investors could arise. In this environment, a non -sovereign asset such as bitcoin, free of capital and dilution controls, would probably attract additional tickets. Meanwhile, other nations that deal with the consequences of a weaker dollar could deploy fiscal and monetary stimulus to support their economies, which potentially boosts more capital towards alternative assets such as bitcoin.

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“If Trump can introduce his way to the position, there is no better positioned as bitcoin. The lowest rates will generate the risk appetite of US investors, sending high prices. Abroad, countries will face weakened economies and resort to the classical economic stimulus to compensate, which leads again at higher prices in bitcoin, ”argues Park.

Scenario 2: A prolonged trade war and mass impression of money

If Trump cannot ensure a broad base agreement and the commercial war in which global economic weakness would surely invite an extensive monetary stimulus of central banks. Historically, such large -scale liquidity injections have been optimistic for bitcoin, since investors seek deflation and decentralized assets isolated from the policies of the Central Bank

“What if fails? What happens if, on the other hand, we obtain a sustained tariff war? Our high -conviction vision is that the resulting economic weakness will lead to the printing of money on a larger scale than we have seen. And historically, this stimulus has been extraordinarily good for bitcoin, ”says Park …

At the time of publication, btc quoted at $ 98,557.

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