in his last x.com/rektcapital/status/1794415609574269039″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>video In an update on YouTube, renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital delved into the complex dynamics surrounding bitcoin halving events, articulating a compelling case for why the market has yet to fully price in the halving that took place. place on April 19. Based on historical data and patterns, Rekt Capital provided an in-depth analysis of the cyclical nature of bitcoin's price movements after the halving, suggesting that substantial growth phases still lie ahead.
Why bitcoin Halving Isn't Included in the Price
Rekt Capital began by reviewing the historical impact of bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years and halve the block reward received by miners. This supply restriction, if demand remains constant or increases, usually leads to a significant increase in prices. “The bitcoin halving is not included in the price,” Rekt Capital stated, noting that each previous halving led to a rally that not only met but also surpassed previous all-time highs.
“The four-year halving always precedes a fantastic surge in bitcoin price action to new all-time highs,” he noted. This consistent pattern forms a compelling narrative that post-halving market dynamics are predictable to some extent, but complex enough to remain partially unforeseen for the market. “There are two phases left in the cycle: the Post-Halving Reaccumulation phase (red) and the Parabolic Rally phase (green),” he stated.
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Focusing on the reaccumulation phase that traditionally follows each halving, Rekt Capital highlighted that this phase typically lasts about 160 days. During this period, the market typically sees price consolidation before a breakout leads to a parabolic rally. “We are currently in a period of reaccumulation again in this cycle. This is a post-halving reaccumulation,” he stated, emphasizing the importance of this phase in setting the stage for the next bull run.
The analyst explained the nature of these cycles and pointed out deviations in current trends compared to past cycles. “This cycle is exhibiting an accelerated pace, with new all-time highs appearing 260 days before the halving, a first in bitcoin history,” he explained. Such deviations suggest that while historical patterns provide a roadmap, each cycle can introduce new dynamics that affect market behavior.
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Rekt Capital did not overlook the potential risks and market corrections that could occur. He warned of the initial rejection that is often seen after reaching the high post-halving price range, a trend seen in previous cycles. “Every time we've seen an initial attempt to get into the high-resistance range after the halving, that first attempt after the halving is one that rejects,” she explained. This observation is crucial for investors expecting immediate gains after the halving, as it tempers overly optimistic expectations with a realistic view of possible short-term pullbacks.
The analyst also addressed the issue of diminishing returns in successive cycles, a factor that experienced bitcoin investors watch closely. While the peak of each cycle has historically been higher than the previous one, the growth rate has slowed. “If this were a one-to-one extension of what we saw in the previous cycle, taking us to $250,000 might be unrealistic this time, and we're probably looking at a more moderate rise,” he predicted.
Nonetheless, Rekt Capital maintained a long-term bullish outlook, suggesting that while the explosive growth rates of the early cycles may not be repeated, the overall upward trajectory of bitcoin's price after the halving remains intact. “This will be the most parabolic phase of the cycle where we will see those gains come very quickly in a short space of time,” he concluded, stating the significant opportunities ahead for bitcoin investors.
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $68,561.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
