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bitcoin (btc), the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, recently celebrated a notable September, hitting a two-month high of $66,560 last Friday.
Although it did not reach its all-time high of $73,700 in March, the strong performance in September has raised expectations for significant gains as the year approaches. Historical trends suggest that when bitcoin ends September on a positive note, the following three months often yield even greater returns.
Best September ever could lead to major year-end rally
Cryptography expert Ali Martínez highlighted this historical pattern on a social network x.com/ali_charts/status/1840133135377318268″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>mailemphasizing the correlation between a bullish September and subsequent price increases.
As seen in the image below shared by the analyst, bitcoin has experienced four particularly strong Septembers since 2015, with average gains of over 20% in October, around 10% in November, and over 20% in December.
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By contrast, bitcoin's recent Septembers that ended in green showed more modest gains, with the last bullish month returning an average gain of around 8%. This time, however, bitcoin's best-ever September may pave the way for even bigger gains than those recorded in previous years.
Currently trading at $62,000, bitcoin's potential trajectory looks promising. If the cryptocurrency adheres to historical averages Following bullish Septembers (projected gains of 20% in October, 10% in November, and another 20% in December), btc could realistically approach a price of almost $98,000 by the end of the year.
Additionally, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency tends to go on a “parabolic bull run” in October of each halving year, as Martinez also did. x.com/ali_charts/status/1841061299100287285″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>pointed outadding to the bullish outlook for what could be one of the best fourth quarters in bitcoin history.
Options Market Suggests Possible bitcoin Drop in Future
While Martínez is optimistic about btc's potential for significant gains in October, one expert remains cautious about the current market dynamics. Recently InspoCrypto Analyst x.com/InspoCrypto/status/1841035113737441688″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>noted that the options market presents a more cautious outlook.
The data indicates that many positions are leaning towards a bearish outlook, and some block trades suggest a potential fall in the price of bitcoin, specifically the target ranges between $60,000 and $55,000.
The current “maximum pain” point, where most options would expire worthless, is $62,000. With the price hovering around this level, there is concern that this could contribute to the trend continuing. bearish trend.
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Additionally, the analyst noted that long positions around the $60,000 mark are vulnerable to liquidation. However, despite these cautious signs for October, the outlook beyond this month appears much more optimistic.
InspoCrypto emphasized that options market data shows strong bullish sentiment for the months following October. Many traders anticipate bitcoin prices to surpass $80,000, with some even predicting a rise to $100,000.
Let's assume a drop occurs in mid-October, as some data suggests. In that case, the analyst believes it may represent the last opportunity for investors to get in before bitcoin embarks on a significant upward trajectory.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
