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The well-known YouTuber Steve Courtney has released a new video talking about the enigmatic bitcoin trend known as “Wave Trend”. Titled “Wave Trend Rejection: This Happens Next,” the video delves into the critical moment bitcoin is currently facing, wondering if it will break the current barriers or face a strong rejection.
A key focus of the video is the detailed analysis of the weekly chart of bitcoin against the US dollar. The Wave Trend indicator, a tool used to decipher market movements, is explained in detail, including its configuration and meaning. Steve highlights the green channel within the Wave Trend, a critical zone historically associated with bear market lows in 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2022. This information offers strategic insight into market lows, reinforcing the predictive power of the tool.
Additionally, the concept of “double dip” is introduced, marked with yellow boxes on the graph. This phenomenon, observed in previous bitcoin cycles, indicates significant buying opportunities, as seen when bitcoin fell to around $23,000. Wave Trend not only helps in identifying market lows but also helps in detecting market peaks. A yellow line, established around 86 in the Wave Trend setup, serves as an alert for potential profit-taking opportunities, demonstrated in several cases over the years.
The video emphasizes the importance of human psychology in market movements, stating that the predictability of bitcoin's behavior is rooted in the consistent nature of human emotions, particularly in financial contexts. This psychological aspect, together with the rhythmic cycles of bitcoin, forms the basis of the analysis presented.
Regarding the current market scenario, the video analyzes the importance of phase one rejections and the role of the red channel in the Wave trend. Drawing parallels to past cycles, particularly those of 2012, 2016 and 2019, Steve suggests a potential pattern in the current cycle, focusing on the fundamental yellow line during phase two of the bull market.
Other points to keep in mind regarding cryptocurrencies
It is good to have a broader view of the general trend of the markets, including the stock market.
One point not discussed by Steve, which we think is worth mentioning, is the correlation between the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Despite recurring fears of a recession, the market has risen steadily after each crisis, suggesting a pattern of resilience. It is good to be careful not to fall for media sensationalism about market declines and focus on concrete data.
Fed rate hikes and market response
We also note that it is important to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and their impact on the market. Historically, whether rates rise, fall, or pause, the market has shown an upward trend. We maintain that this pattern is likely to continue and we do not fall prey to the idea that “this time it may be different.”
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