Introduction
As we approach the conclusion of the third epoch, the countdown to next bitcoin halving is firmly underway. Halving (also known as “Halvening”) is one of the most important and innovative features of bitcoin. Every 10 minutes, the bitcoin network issues new bitcoins, and approximately every four years (every 210,000 blocks, to be precise) the amount issued (the “block subsidy”) is halved. The block subsidy is the reward miners receive for validating and recording new transactions on the blockchain.
The block subsidy halving is a critical factor in the eventual limited supply of 21 million bitcoins. Additionally, miners also charge transaction fees that users attach to their transactions to encourage miners to include them in the next block. Therefore, miners often earn more bitcoin from mining a block than from the subsidy alone. .
WHEN WILL THE NEXT bitcoin HALVING BE?
The next bitcoin halving is predicted to take place around April 20, 2024 EST, which will reduce the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 btc. This halving period (or epoch) will increase the supply by 164,250 bitcoins (from 19,687,500 to 20,671,875), just 328,124 bitcoins from the maximum supply limit of 21 million.
TO CALCULATE THE NEXT HALF DATE
- Determine the blocking interval: While it is true that bitcoin's blocking time (the time between each block) is approximately 10 minutes, the time may vary slightly due to hash rate and network settings.
- Find the current block height: You need to know the current block height, which you can find on various blockchain explorer websites or directly from your bitcoin node if you are running one.
- Calculate the blocks remaining until the next halving: The bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. Subtract the height of the current block from the height of the next halved block.
- Calculate estimated time remaining: Multiply the number of blocks remaining by the approximate block interval (in seconds) to estimate the time remaining until the next halving.
- Convert time to a date: Convert the estimated time remaining to a date format to know when the next halving is expected.
Current block height: can be found btc“>here.
Lock time: can be found bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3y”>here.
Current date: xx/xx/xxxx
Blocks per era: 210,000
Next block height halved: 210,000 times next halving issue
Calculation:
(((Next block height halved – Current block height)*10)/60)/24 = Days remaining
The hash rate and the difficulty setting are two variables that constantly determine the speed at which blocks are processed and therefore the intervals between blocks. As a result, the date of the next halving may vary, so it is important to continue calculating.
HISTORY OF bitcoin HALVING
As of March 2024, there have been three bitcoin halvings:
- On November 28, 2012, bitcoin's block subsidy decreased from 50 btc per block to 25 btc per block.
- On July 9, 2016, the second bitcoin halving reduced the block subsidy from 25 btc per block to 12.5 btc per block.
- On May 20, 2020, the third bitcoin halving reduced the block subsidy from 12.5 btc per block to 6.25 btc per block.
bitcoin Halving in 2012
The 2012 halving was the first bitcoin halving.
Reduce by half:
Date: November 28, 2012
Halving number: 01
Block height: btc/block/000000000000048b95347e83192f69cf0366076336c639f9b7228e9ba171342e”>210,000
Block reward: 25
Mined supply: 10,500,000 (amount of bitcoins already issued when the halving occurred)
Epoch:
Subsidy: 5,250,000
Mined supply percentage: 25%
bitcoin Halving in 2016
The 2016 halving was bitcoin's second halving.
Reduce by half:
Date: July 9, 2016
Halving number: 01
Block height: btc/block/000000000000000002cce816c0ab2c5c269cb081896b7dcb34b8422d6b74ffa1″>420,000
Block reward: 12.5
Mined supply: 15,750,000 (amount of bitcoins already issued when the halving occurred)
Epoch:
Subsidy: 2,625,000
Percentage of mined supply: 12.5%
bitcoin Halving in 2020
The 2020 halving was bitcoin's third halving.
Reduce by half:
Date: May 20, 2020
Halving number: 03
Block height: btc/block/000000000000000000024bead8df69990852c202db0e0097c1a12ea637d7e96d”>630,000
Block reward: 6.25
Mined supply: 18,375,000 (amount of bitcoins already issued when the halving occurred)
Epoch:
Subsidy: 1,312,500
Mined supply percentage: 6.25%
bitcoin Halving in 2024
The 2024 halving will be bitcoin's third halving.
Reduce by half:
Date: April 20, 2024 (estimated)
Halving number: 04
Block height: 840,000
Block reward: 3,125
Mined supply: 19,687,500 (amount of bitcoins issued when the halving occurred)
Epoch:
Subsidy: 656,250
Offer percentage mined: 3.125%
FUTURE bitcoin HALVING
The block time variable will introduce some variation in the estimated halving dates, but it is possible to project approximate dates until the end of block subsidies in 2140. Below we provide a succinct overview of the expected halving dates halfway from 2024 to 2060, offering valuable information on these upcoming milestones.
| Epoch number | Block height | Halving year | Estimated halving date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
04 (of 32) |
840,000 |
2024 |
April 20, 2024 |
|
05 (of 32) |
1,050,000 |
2028 |
2028 |
|
06 (of 32) |
1,260,000 |
2032 |
2032 |
|
07 (of 32) |
1,470,000 |
2036 |
2036 |
|
08 (of 32) |
1,680,000 |
2040 |
2040 |
|
09 (of 32) |
1,890,000 |
2044 |
2044 |
|
10 (of 32) |
2,100,000 |
2048 |
2048 |
|
11 (of 32) |
2,310,000 |
2052 |
2052 |
|
12 (of 32) |
2,520,000 |
2056 |
2056 |
|
(keep going…) |
HISTORICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE bitcoin HALVING
Halving events have consistently preceded significant increases in the price of bitcoin, making them a focal point for market analysts.
Price appreciation
Historically, the price of bitcoin has seen significant increases following halving events due to the combination of reduced supply and increased demand. These events substantially influence the overall supply of bitcoin, thus affecting its price. However, it is essential to recognize that price dynamics are influenced by many factors beyond halving events.
- After the 2012 halving, the price of bitcoin rose approximately 9,000% to $1,162.
- After the 2016 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 4,200% to $19,800.
- After the 2020 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 683% to $69,000.
The issuance rate of bitcoin halves approximately every four years.
Challenges for miners
Halving events can pose challenges for miners as their income decreases when block rewards are halved. To remain competitive, miners must operate efficiently, potentially driving the development and adoption of more energy-efficient mining technology. It is quite common for miners to go bankrupt, which often affects the network's hash rate, the supply of bitcoins available for sale, and ultimately the price of bitcoins. Through the turmoil, the difficulty adjustment eventually restores balance and the bitcoin network and ecosystem continues to move forward.
Frequent questions:
Will bitcoin rise by half?
bitcoin's historical performance following a halving event has shown a notable upward trajectory. Reducing the new supply rate is bitcoin's path to absolute scarcity. This event usually generates greater interest and demand. However, it is vital to exercise caution and not view halvings as guaranteed paths to quick profits. The prudent approach is to understand the long-term potential of bitcoin and consider it as a store of value rather than trying to time the market with buying and selling.
Is the bitcoin halving bullish?
The bitcoin halving is undoubtedly a bullish event as it changes supply dynamics in favor of price appreciation. While the halving is generally considered a bullish event, it is wise to remember that the price of bitcoin is influenced by several factors. Caution is recommended.
How many days after halving does bitcoin peak?
A look at the last three halving events shows that a significant price increase usually begins a few months after the halving event. Additionally, prior to a halving event, the price of bitcoin tends to rise as investors anticipate a price rally after the halving. After the halving, the price usually takes more than 12 months to reach its peak.
Should you buy bitcoins before the halving?
Instead of trying to understand when to buy and sell bitcoins, it is advisable to understand the value of the asset. That said, a pattern has developed in the past where buying 6-12 months before the halving and selling 12-18 months after the halving tends to result in a sizeable profit. Past performance and behavior are no guarantee of future performance. Our best advice for those who are not experienced traders would be to buy and hold for many cycles.
