A pattern in the supply of long-term bitcoin holders could provide some clues as to when the next bull run could begin in earnest.
bitcoin HODLer balance has followed a specific pattern in previous cycles
According to the market intelligence platform In the block, the supply of btc HODLers is “an excellent indicator for measuring market cycles.” “HODLers” or long-term holders (LTH) refer to bitcoin investors who have held their coins for at least a year without selling or transferring them on the blockchain.
LTHs are the decisive hands in the market, rarely selling their coins even when a profitable opportunity has presented itself or a deep price drop has occurred.
One way to track the behavior of these diamond hands is through the combined amount of balance they carry in their wallets. The chart below shows this bitcoin metric trend over the past few years.
<img decoding="async" class="alignnone aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/When-will-the-Bitcoin-bull-run-begin-This-could-be.jpeg" alt="Long-Term bitcoin Holder Supply” width=”1813″ height=”567″ loading=”lazy”/>
The value of the metric seems to have been steadily going up in recent months | Source: IntoTheBlock on X
As shown in the chart above, the supply of bitcoin held by HODLers has shown some growth in recent years, suggesting that LTHs have been accumulating.
This rise in the indicator has also continued during the latest rally, implying that LTHs are not yet ready to start taking profits. Something to keep in mind is that when the metric goes up, it does not mean that they are buying in the present.
Naturally, the indicator has a 1-year lag associated with it, as the coins must mature during that time before they can be included in the cohort. However, this only applies to purchasing, as holders who move their coins to sell instantly reset the age to zero and therefore remove them from the pool.
On the chart, the analytics firm has highlighted a pattern that bitcoin LTH supply has observed during the lead-up to past bull runs. It would appear that HODLers have shown accumulation in those periods.
On the other hand, the beginning of sales of this cohort coincided with the beginning of the bullish rally itself. So far, HODLers have only been accumulating recently, implying that the market may be in the pre-bull run phase.
If the historical pattern holds for the current cycle as well, then HODLer bidding could be something to watch as a significant downtrend could become a sign that the bull run has begun once again.
btc Price
bitcoin had plummeted towards the $41,700 mark yesterday, but the asset has already seen a strong recovery as its price is now trading around the $43,000 level.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-medium aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/When-will-the-Bitcoin-bull-run-begin-This-could-be" alt="bitcoin price chart” width=”1534″ height=”868″/>
Looks like btc has jumped up during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Charts from TradingView.com, IntoTheBlock.com
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