Recent analytical insights from FireCharts 2.0 indicate significant maneuvering by major bitcoin stakeholders, often referred to as “whales,” that are impacting the cryptocurrency's price movements. These stakeholders are altering liquidity patterns in a way that suggests a strategic push toward a more tightly controlled trading range.
What are bitcoin whales doing?
According x.com/MI_Algos/status/1795517123608916088″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Material indicators, an advanced trading analysis, there has been a notable adjustment in the liquidity distribution within the bitcoin order book. Specifically, there is a decrease in requested liquidity at higher price points, along with an increase in offered liquidity from $60,000 to $67,000. This dynamic will compress the price of bitcoin into a tighter range, a scenario anticipated by the platform since the digital asset rose above $52,000.
Discussions about bitcoin's price trajectory have been rife with speculation about a possible rise to $73,000, especially after its bounce from a low of $52,000. Despite a recent high near $70,600, which ended in a strong rejection, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. “There has been a lot of talk since late last week calling for a rise to $73,000, and there are legitimate reasons why that is a short-term target, and why it is still possible despite the rejection of $70,600 we saw on Monday ” noted Material Indicators.
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From a macroeconomic perspective, bitcoin's prospects appear extremely bullish. “The outlook for bitcoin is literally more optimistic than ever,” a Material Indicators representative said during a recent livestream. They refrained from reiterating the details and urged viewers to review the previous week's analysis for a deeper understanding.
On the other hand, technical analysis presents a more nuanced picture. Despite the favorable macroeconomic outlook, bitcoin has continually failed to confirm a resistance/support (R/S) shift at $69,000, a crucial level to confirm bullish momentum. This continued failure is emblematic of the bulls' struggle to maintain bullish pressure and secure a new all-time high (ATH). By integrating order book data with technical indicators, analysts have observed a progressive downward movement in requested liquidity blocks, from initial placements between $75,000 and $76,000 to recent figures near $70,000 and $71,500.
Looking ahead, the fundamental question is: how low can bitcoin realistically go before finding substantial support? To address this, Material Indicators analysts turn to a combination of technical analysis and real-time order book data. The convergence of bitcoin's 21-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages around $65,000-$66,000 offers a compelling argument for potential support. The 21-day moving average, in particular, is favored for its historical reliability as resistance and support.
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Order book data corroborates this analysis, showing a strengthening of requested liquidity resistance above $70,000, while requested liquidity is strategically placed as low as $58,000. The highest concentrations of supply liquidity indicate the strongest support at $60,000 and $65,000, with somewhat less support around $66,000 and $67,000.
Despite the complex interplay of short-term factors, the long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish. The essential question for the market is when, not if, a legitimate breakout will occur. Order book observations show more than $200 million in backlogged requests between $71,000 and $75,000, juxtaposed with around $90 million in bids between $65,000 and $67,000. If the requested liquidity does not decrease, the requested liquidity will need to strengthen significantly to trigger a sustainable break towards $70.
According to Material Indicators, the most favorable scenario would see bitcoin establish a firm consolidation range above $65,000, validate an R/S Flip at $69,000, and stabilize above this level before targeting a new ATH. Such a development would not only confirm the bullish trend but also pave the way for sustained bullish momentum based on current order book trends and technical analyses. They suggest that this trajectory would provide the healthiest market progression in light of existing conditions.
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $67,832.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
