Recently, Gabor Gurbacs, advisor to Tether and the renowned investment management firm VanEck, has shared his outlook, offering a long-term bullish stance on the potential impact of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch in the US.
This view particularly contradicts the common tendency of people to take a short-term perspective on the impact of the btc Spot ETF and not a long-term one. Gurbacs noted the following:
People tend to exaggerate what is current, but remain myopic about the bigger picture.
Gurbacs emphasized that while the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs is often surrounded by short-term speculation, its real value lies in its long-term influence.
VanEck's advisor suggested that initially, the launch of a spot btc ETF could result in a net inflow of $100 million, predominantly made up of reinvested funds from institutional players.
In my opinion, people tend to overestimate the initial impact of US bitcoin ETFs. I think maybe a few $100 million of (mostly recycled) money flows in.
In the long term, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot bitcoin ETFs. If history is any guide, gold is worth studying as a parallel. https://t.co/6vvkA9aC09
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) December 31, 2023
Gurbacs' insights further pointed to an uploaded post early last month that delved into the deeper implications of the approval of a spot btc ETF in the US. Drawing parallels to historical gold financial market trends, Gurbacs suggests that timely approval of the btc ETF could potentially unlock trillions of dollars in value over time.
The gold plan: a parallel path for bitcoin?
Gurbacs' analogy between the gold market and bitcoin provides a compelling narrative. VanEck's advisor refers to the dramatic rise in the value of gold following the launch of the first gold ETF by State Street in November 2004.
This event marked a major turning point, with gold prices rising from $400 to $1,800 in eight years and its market capitalization quintupling, from $2 trillion to $10 trillion. This historical evidence supports Gurbacs' belief that bitcoin could emulate gold's journey after the launch of the spot ETF.
Expanding on his analysis, Gurbacs posits that the approval of a spot btc ETF in the US would follow “the 2004 gold model,” which could trigger a similar exponential rise in the value of bitcoin.
Gurbacs envisions bitcoin carving out a niche for itself in the global financial ecosystem, transcending short-term hype to establish lasting value.
Meanwhile, the next big wave in finance
In addition to his bullish view on bitcoin ETFs, Gurbacs has recently expressed optimism about the future of stablecoins. Gurbacs foresees these digital assets becoming the next major force in the financial market, potentially growing into multi-billion dollar markets.
Investment wrappers evolved from stocks to hedge funds, mutual funds and ETFs, each creating a multi-trillion-dollar market. Whats Next? In my opinion, they are stablecoins. Below are some attributes that explain why stablecoins have the potential to create the next multi-trillion dollar markets. pic.twitter.com/QjM4iMmD4o
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) December 27, 2023
According to Gurbacs, stablecoins possess unique characteristics that differentiate them from traditional financial instruments such as stocks, hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs. These attributes include low fees, easy accessibility, and practicality in trading, making stablecoins not just a digital asset, but a key player in the future of global finance.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
