After such a historic career in the last two years, it was only a matter of time before the projections for a bitcoin Bear market took care of cryptographic discussions. Several experts have shared when they think that the digital asset market will reach its upper cycle and will probably witness a reversal.
While the crowd is still quite optimistic about the potential of several cryptocurrencies, the market that moves in the opposite direction will not be a surprise. A popular cryptography merchant on the social media platform has made a similar feeling, providing a possible time for the arrival of the crypto Bear market.
Why the bearish market could start in April
In a January 25 publication on platform x, the outstanding cryptographic analyst Ali Martínez <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/ali_charts/status/1883096518825295883″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>shared His “unpopular opinion” about the current bitcoin Bull cycle and its potential end. According to the expert, the bearish market could begin in approximately three months.
The reasoning behind this projection is bitcoin's historical price performance in different mid -mid -cycles. Half of half of bitcoin, an event that occurs approximately every four years, squeezes bitcoin's supply by reducing the mining reward to half.
As seen in 2024, the most recent half year, the mid -half event has historically been a precursor for substantial price growth. However, manifestations after the audience are generally followed by an important profit taking, which leads to the consolidation of the market and a bearish market.
<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Stay-alert-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-could-start-in-90-days.jpeg" alt="bitcoin” width=”1200″ height=”675″/>
Source: Ali_charts/x
From a historical point of view, approximately 276 days after the event of half of half have proven to be fundamental in the trajectory of the bitcoin market. Specifically, the price of bitcoin experienced significant price growth after crossing the 276-day milestone in the mid-2012-2016 cycle.
However, the btc market witnessed a change in feeling and a severe market recession 367 days after half, 91 days after the milestone of 276 days. If this historical pattern is maintained, investors could see the Bear market begins at some time at the end of April.
At the time of writing this article, the btc price is just below the $ 105,000 brand, which does not reflect a significant movement on the last day.
Retail interest in the increase?
While historical price data is an effective way to analyze the trajectory of one cycle, chain data is another method that sheds light on cyclic price movements. One of this data is the retail interest in bitcoin, which measures the demand for small -scale investors in the main cryptocurrency.
Related Reading: Microstrategy can face fiscal problems of more than $ 19 billion bitcoin profits not made: Report
In general, the demand for retail investors often correlates with the maximum euphoria phase. “Looking at the past cycles, the last two main peaks in the searches for “how to buy cryptography” occurred when btc It was around $ 65,000 in May 2021 and $ 69,000 in November 2021, at the top of the market “, Martínez said in a separate publication in x.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/1737922467_13_Stay-alert-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-could-start-in-90-days.jpeg" alt="bitcoin” width=”1200″ height=”1183″/>
Source: Ali_charts/x
As shown in the previous table, the indicator of “interest in time” seems to be retaking again in 2025. This could be a sign of an imminent top for the encryption market.
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The price of bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on x/yOhQ57z9/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView
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