In a recent video interview on the Paul Barron Network, Mark Yusko, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, made a compelling prediction about bitcoin‘s future. Yusko, with decades of experience in the financial industry, suggested that the approval of a bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the SEC could pave the way for an influx of $300 billion into the market.
The interview, which delved into the current state of the bitcoin landscape and its potential for institutional investment, saw Yusko shed light on the impact that regulatory developments can have on the bitcoin market.
Yusko began by emphasizing the importance of the approval of a bitcoin spot ETF in the United States, highlighting that it would provide a bridge for institutional investors to enter the bitcoin market with confidence. He explained, “Institutional investors have been cautious about entering the crypto space due to regulatory uncertainties and concerns about custody. A spot ETF would offer them a regulated and secure way to gain exposure to bitcoin.”
Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicated an inflow of about $150 billion coming into the market upon approval, but Yusko thinks there is potential for even more. “I’ll go further and say 1% seems more likely. That’d be $300 billion. $300 billion on a $100 billion of free float – price goes up a lot. A lot, a lot,” he stated.
There is currently a wave of 10 active spot bitcoin ETF filings, not including Grayscale’s application to convert its flagship fund GBTC into a spot bitcoin ETF. Among these applicants include the worlds largest asset manager BlackRock, who is “going to fight like cats and dogs to win market share” against the other assets managers once approved, according to Galaxy Digital CEO and spot bitcoin ETF applicant Mike Novogratz.
Yusko emphasized the importance of the first mover advantage in getting an ETF approved, stating “Whoever is first, is gonna get the vast majority of assets.” But he sees BlackRock coming into the market as a complete game changer. Where many of tried and failed to get a spot ETF approved by the SEC, Yusko believes BlackRock will be the first — and maybe only applicant to one approved.
“I believe and I’ve said multiple times that BlackRock will be the first one. I’ve actually been saying that for over a year. I actually might even go stronger and say that they’ll be the only one approved,” he said.
Yusko’s optimism is grounded in the belief that a regulated spot ETF would satisfy the due diligence requirements of institutional investors, enabling them to allocate a portion of their portfolios to the digital asset. He mentioned that bitcoin‘s maturation as an asset class and its growing recognition as a store of value had already piqued institutional interest.
A spot bitcoin ETF “will be approved sometime around year end,” Yusko believes, whether that be before the end of the year or early in 2024.
