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crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) puts forward a strong bullish outlook for bitcoin in Q4 2024. Leveraging historical data, Astronomer provides a x.com/astronomer_zero/status/1840218742049112213″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>analysis via x, suggesting an 82% probability of an ultra-bullish trend based on bitcoin's performance in September.
The cryptoanalyst opens his analysis by emphasizing the unexpected positive performance of bitcoin in September. “September is almost over and, to the surprise of the general public, it looks like it is going to be green (by a long shot), with the possibility of establishing the greenest September in 2024, which supports our breakout thesis in which we have Been working for a while. now,” he writes.
Digging deeper into market sentiment, Astronomer sees a significant disconnect between public perception and actual market positions. “And although we are no longer the only ones who are fully convinced of the bullish thesis, the data is and remains data. And upon close inspection, despite the talk/analysis posts, most are not positioned yet, took profits too early, or applaud the declines and say they are a gift for wanting one,” he explained.
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Additionally, he delves into sentiment within closed circles: “This observation comes not just from public posts or twitter, but also from the variety of paid groups they participate in to conduct these analyses. No names or details are allowed to be shared, but most groups are long and took profits early, are looking for an entry, or are short. So the hand of the market seems to be working.”
82% chance bitcoin is bullish
The astronomer's bullish thesis is supported by historical data, particularly the cyclical nature of the price of bitcoin. “The data analysis is quite simple here: every time btc had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months, that is, a green October, November and December. And this has happened 3/3 times since the inception of btc,” he says, indicating a strong seasonal pattern.
However, he is quick to temper this with a critique of his methodology, admitting the potential drawbacks of low data samples: “Now, as I said, I'm not a big fan of seasonality and our analysis only has 3 data points.” , which gives We only have 67% confidence in saying that the next three months will be truly green (low data fallacy). But to add importance, due to the binary nature of bull/bear, the data also has exclusivity: if September is not green, 6 out of 8 times, the fourth quarter has not been green every month.”
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He further refines his thesis: “So, by including exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret statement, using more data points, is that: 'The direction of September has determined the overall direction of the fourth quarter and whether September is green and not red, a bullish (not bearish) Q4 has followed 9 out of 11 times. So if September closes above $59,000, there is an 82% chance that the fourth quarter will be bullish.”
The prediction sparked dialogue within the community. One user @pieceofsheet99 commented skeptically, suggesting the possibility of an unexpected slowdown: “If September turned out to be green to everyone's surprise, October may also turn out to be red to everyone's surprise.” The astronomer responded, reaffirming his confidence in historical trends: “Indeed, but that's not what we've typically seen. So I personally, as always, stick to the data.”
Astronomer's analysis concludes on a note of strategic optimism, emphasizing the importance of aligning with market dynamics and historical patterns rather than speculative impulses. “How optimistic? We'll see (time is more important than price), but it's not about planning for retirement and making quick money. It's about being on the right side of the trade, time and time again, enjoying the market without stress and not having too many regrets about losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process). And this way, eventually (quite soon), you will reach your goals.”
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $64,622.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
