Bitcoin’s tight consolidation near $25,000 suggests bulls are holding on to their positions in anticipation of a breakout to a fresh 2023 high.
Bitcoin (BTC) is up more than 11% last week and is trading near fundamental resistance at $25,000. Monitoring Resource Materials indicators highlighted in their latest update that high volume traders were “cutting” overhead resistance, which could trigger a rally. As prices rise, retail traders may get sucked in and whales could use this opportunity to sell their positions that have built up at lower levels.
Every uptrend sees several pullbacks and Bitcoin is no exception. However, the price action of the last few months shows a great base pattern, which may be about to break out higher. If that happens, Bitcoin will signal a possible trend change.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
There are very few occasions when all the indicators turn bullish. If traders continue to wait for that to happen, they may miss out on a large part of the rally. Therefore, it is best to closely watch the price action and trade according to the individual’s money management principles. Usually successful strategies are simple and easy to follow.
Could Bitcoin and certain altcoins continue to outperform the US equity markets any time soon? Let’s study the graphs to find out.
SPX
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) bounced off the 20-day exponential moving average (4080) on Feb 10, but the bulls were unable to push the price to the upper resistance at 4200. This emboldened the bears who pushed the price below from the 20-day EMA on February 17. A minor positive for the bulls is that the lower levels attracted strong buying as seen in the long tail of the day’s candle.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920462_862_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
The 20 day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is close to the midpoint, which suggests a few days of consolidation. The index could oscillate between the uptrend line and 4200 for some time.
Trading within a range is generally volatile and random. If the bulls push the price above 4200, the index could resume its upward move. There is resistance at 4,300, but if the bulls do not allow the price to fall back below 4,200 during the next correction, the index can rally to 4,500.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and falls below the uptrend line, the index may drop to 3764.
DXY
The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke out and closed above the wedge pattern on February 16. The moving averages are about to complete a bullish crossover and the RSI is near 57, indicating that the bulls are trying to come back.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920462_260_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
However, bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will try to push the price back below the moving averages and catch the aggressive bulls. If they do, the index could fall first to 102.58 and then to 101.29.
Conversely, if the bulls do not allow the price to fall below the moving averages, it will suggest that dips are being bought. The index may then initiate a relief rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 105.52 and thereafter to the 50% retracement level of 106.98.
USDT/BTC
Bitcoin has been trading near the strong upper resistance at $25,211 for the past four days. Although the bears have successfully defended the level, the bulls have not given up. They seized the opportunity again on February 20 and bought at lower levels.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920462_727_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
Generally, a consolidation near strong overhead resistance breaks out. The rising moving averages and the RSI above 65 also indicate that the bulls are in control. If the price breaks out and sustains above $25,250, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum. There is no further resistance until $31,000, so this leg could be covered in no time.
The first support is at the 20-day EMA ($23,218) and then at $22,800. The sellers will have to quickly drag the price below this support to weaken the bullish momentum. Then the pair could fall to $21,480.
EUR/USDT
Buyers pushed Ether (ETH) above the overhead resistance of $1680 on Feb. 17 and thwarted attempts by the bears to push the price back below the breakout level.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920463_48_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
The rising moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The ETH/USDT pair could rally to $1800 first and then continue its journey towards the next resistance at $2000. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the $2,000-$2,200 zone.
This bullish view could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $1,460. The pair may then drop to the strong support at $1,352.
USD/USDT
The sellers are trying to defend the resistance at $318, but the bulls have not allowed the price of BNB (BNB) to sustain below the moving averages. This suggests that the lower levels are attracting buyers.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920463_873_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
The price has been holding on to the $318 resistance for the past two days, raising the possibility of a break above it.
If that happens, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, where the bears can re-erect a strong barrier. If the buyers break through, the pair could jump as high as $360 and then continue its journey to $400.
The bears will have to dig in and hold the price below the 50-day SMA ($300) to keep its chances of starting a deep correction alive.
USD/XRP
The XRP (XRP) price has been falling in a descending channel pattern. The 20-day EMA ($0.39) is flat, but the RSI has risen above 54, which indicates that the bulls are trying to start a rally.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920463_82_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
If the price rises and sustains above the resistance line of the channel, the XRP/USDT pair can initiate a rally to the crucial overhead level of $0.43. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible surge to $0.51.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level and sustains below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears are not willing to give up without a fight. The pair could slide to $0.36 first and then to the support line of the channel.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) is tightening between the neckline and the 20-day EMA ($0.38). This tight range trading suggests that the bulls are buying the dips to the 20 day EMA as they anticipate a move higher.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920463_586_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
The rising moving averages and the RSI in positive territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. A break and close above $0.42 will complete a bullish Inverse H&S pattern. This setup could attract more buying and push the price towards $0.50. The target target of this reversal pattern is $0.60.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20 day EMA, the bears will have an opportunity to come back. The pair could slide to the strong support at $0.34.
Related: Ethereum Deflation Accelerates as Shanghai Update Looms: Can ETH Price Avoid a 30% Drop?
MATIC/USDT
Polygon (MATIC) is in a strong uptrend. The bears tried to stop the move higher near $1.57, but the shallow retracement suggests that the bulls are not rushing out.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920463_727_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
If the price rises from the current level and breaks above $1.57, the uptrend may resume. The MATIC/USDT pair could rise to $1.70. This level is likely to act as a major hurdle, but if the bulls push the price above it, the pair could continue its march north and reach towards $2.10.
The first major support on the downside is the 20 day EMA. The sellers will have to pull the price below this support to stop the bullish momentum. Then the pair could start a deeper correction to $1.13.
DOGO/USDT
The bulls and bears are seeing a tough battle near the moving averages. One minor positive is that buyers have not allowed Dogecoin (DOGE) to stay below the 50-day SMA ($0.08), indicating that demand is at lower levels.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920463_618_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
The 20-day EMA ($0.09) has started to gradually turn up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that the bulls have a slight advantage. If the buyers push and hold the price above $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to $0.10 and then $0.11. This level can act as significant resistance, but if it is crossed, the next stop could be at $0.15.
To the downside, the $0.08 level is acting as strong support. Any breach of this level could result in a retest of the crucial support at $0.07.
SOL/USDT
The resistance line at Solana (SOL) has acted as a major hurdle three times before, so a break and close above it will be the first indication that the downtrend may be coming to an end.
![](https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1676920463_191_Price-analysis-220-SPX-DXY-BTC-ETH-BNB-XRP-ADA.png)
If the price sustains above the resistance line, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $39, where the bears could mount a strong defense again. If the bulls turn the resistance line into support during the next pullback, the probability of the pair reaching $50 increases.
Time is running out for bears. If they want to regain the advantage, they will have to quickly stop the move higher and pull the price below the support at $19.50. If they do that, the pair can plummet to $15.
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