Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he believes crypto native Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in the upcoming US presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he made, I still believe that He may not be as biased as he thinks.
First, prediction market traders bet on these odds to make money, not to pledge allegiance to their favorite politician. Traders are looking to make profits and are trying to set their bets with attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, such as positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that Trump has a very strong chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller saying that the recent positive rally in the markets is because the markets are pricing in a Trump victory.
Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. So, let's take a look at another non-native cryptocurrency market prediction platform, Kalshi.
On Kalshi, an American betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, Trump also has a big advantage. Currently, Trump leads Harris by 20%. The multitude of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even leaving aside their personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I see a lot of people saying they want Trump to win, but they are taking the other side of this bet because they believe there may be voter fraud on the part of the Democrats that would make Harris “win.”
“All those betting on Trump have not taken into account the probability that the delivery vans will arrive at the polling stations at 3 in the morning with tens of thousands of ballots, 99% of which were going to Kamala and suddenly They 'found' them.” commented a user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”
It will be fascinating to watch these prediction markets develop as we get closer to the election, which is now just two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the elections, these margins will likely narrow. It seems to me that Trump has this on his mind, but it won't be over until it's over. In the last election, most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, only for Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3 in the morning to beat him. If there is any voter fraud and interference in the upcoming election, these prediction markets may find themselves in a very volatile time.
A Trump victory would be huge for bitcoin on a regulatory and pricing level, due to the proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not presented any real details about the policy she would implement while president and has a four-year history of attacking the industry while in office . as vice president.
bitcoin Magazine has partnered with Stand With crypto to provide real-time election coverage on November 5. So if you are a Bitcoiner tired of watching the mainstream news and want to witness this election from a Bitcoiner's perspective, be sure to tune in to the broadcast. More details on the live stream and where to watch here.
This article is a Carry. The opinions expressed are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of btc Inc or bitcoin Magazine.
