In a recent bitcoin-has-topped/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt delved into bitcoin's price action, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might have peaked for the current cycle. According to Brandt, bitcoin is showing signs of “exponential decay,” indicating a weakening in the momentum of its bull market cycles over the years.
“Does history show that bitcoin has overcome the situation? It is called Exponential Decay and it describes bitcoin,” Brandt wrote. He further explained: “The fact is that the bitcoin market bull cycles have lost an enormous amount of momentum over the years… I don't like the exponential decline that occurs in bitcoin – bitcoin is one of my biggest holdings. personal investment”.
Brandt provided a historical breakdown of bitcoin bull cycles, noting a steady decline in the magnitude of gains:
- The bull cycle from December 21, 2009 to June 6, 2011 demonstrated a staggering 3,191-fold advance.
- The subsequent cycle, from November 14, 2011 to November 25, 2013, showed a small but impressive 572-fold advance.
- The period from August 17, 2015 to December 18, 2017 saw an even smaller advance of 122 times.
- Most recently, the cycle from December 10, 2018 to November 8, 2021 saw an advance of only 22 times.
bitcoin reached its cycle peak with a probability of 25%
Based on these historical patterns, Brandt extrapolated that the current cycle, which began on November 21, 2022, would likely see an approximate 4.5x gain from its low of $15,473, predicting a potential high near $72,723. Notably, this peak was already almost reached with a price of $73,835 recorded on March 14, 2024. Brandt underlines this observation with caution: “The magnitude of each bull cycle has been approximately 20% of its predecessor, indicating a significant energy loss. “
In his analysis, Brandt does not shy away from addressing the implications of bitcoin halving events, which have historically been catalysts for substantial price increases. Despite this, he emphasizes the undeniable presence of the decay pattern: “But for now, we have to deal with the fact of exponential decay. Has occurred. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I have a 25% chance that bitcoin has already peaked this cycle.”
In a communication on Brandt recognized the validity. “Pretty comprehensive analysis,” Brand said.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet” data-width=”500″ data-dnt=”true”>
A fairly complete analysis. https://t.co/hiSogUtEkt
—Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1784757691426254937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>April 29, 2024
@Giovann35084111's analysis goes beyond cyclical trends by illustrating how power law deviations at specific intervals, particularly around halving events, provide a structured prediction model. This approach projects systematic patterns in bitcoin price movements, reinforcing a bullish outlook. The analyst predicts a significant increase in the price of bitcoin, estimating that the next high in late 2025 will reach between $210,000 and $250,000.
In a subsequent post, Brandt emphasized that his main prediction is a continued bull market until September/October 2025. twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1784771263002710176″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>explained, “I give more credibility to a report I published in February. Here is a chart of that analysis, which projects a bull market through September/October 2025,” indicating that his views are influenced by evolving market data and theoretical models.
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $62,450.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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